• by Mitch Oscar , Op-Ed Contributor, June 24, 2013

My son is a high schooler. Recently, he was given an assignment to read "Gulliver’s Travels" by Jonathan Swift, which was originally published in 1726 under the title of "Travels in Several Remote Nations of the World, in Four Parts." He asked if I would take a read with him. I acquiesced. My first recollections of the tome were an animated version I had watched in my youth mid-twentieth century, a tour in college a decade later, and a movie of the week remake starring "Cheers"-famed actor and current "CSI" lead Ted Danson – shy of the 21^stcentury turn. I quickly spied Wikipedia’s “Plot Summary” to fill in the narrative gaps.

Upon review, I was struck by the similarities between the worlds that Gulliver was thrust upon in his four voyages and our media community’s four archetypal video NewFronts & Old:

The Sojourns

Jonathan Swift divides Lemuel Gulliver’s travels into four voyages: 1) Lilliput, 2) Brobdingnag, 3) Laputa, and 4) the Country of the Houyhnhnms. Each is peopled by residents with extraordinary sounding, multi-syllabic names: the Lilliputians, the Brobdingnagians, the Laputians, the Balnibarians, the Luggnaggians, Glubbdubdribinas, and Houyhnhnmsians.

This year the media community was regaled with four archetypal video New & Old Fronts: 1) the traditional broadcast network galas, 2) the precious cable network ceremonials, 3) the ad-supported broadband video destination’s bacchanalias, and 4) the ever present, virtually newsworthy, non ad-supported subscription video service “originals” birthings. Excluding the familiar and traditional Old Fronts of broadcast networks and cable networks, the NewFronts’ festivities were festooned with hosts whose nomenclatures were recognizable in our community yet when referred to in tribal terms, their antecedents could be found in "Gulliver’s Travels," i.e., YouTubians, IABians, Huluians, Cracklers, Amazonian Primers, Netflixians…

Representations

In "Gulliver’s Travels," each of the four voyages is a representation by the author of the varying stages of societal development expressed through his satirical lens:

Lilliput

--  Gulliver’s observations on the Court of Lilliput.

--  May 4, 1699 – April 13, 1702

Brobdingnag

--  Gulliver’s assessment of the state of Europe with the King whose is not happy with Gulliver’s accounts, particularly learning of the use of guns and cannons.

--  June 20, 1702 – June 3, 1706

Laputa

--  Gulliver’s witnessing of this kingdom’s blind pursuit of science without practical results, such as uncovering political conspiracies by examining the excrement of suspicious persons (muckraking).

--  August 5, 1706 – April 16, 1709

Houyhnhnms

--   Gulliver’s banishment by a ruling class whose devotion to rationalism leads to emotional barrenness.

--    September 7, 1710 – July 2, 1715

Similarly, each of the New & Old Front cotillions offered a non-biased representation of their development, value proposition, aspirations and unique numerical relationship with television watchers:

Broadcast Networks

--    Largest investment in qualitative talent and scripted content

--   Broadest demographic  reach of all video viewership at a single juncture

--   Genesis to present

Cable Networks

--   Comparable to broadcast network quality scripted content

--   More targeted reach of segments of all video viewership at a single juncture

--    1983 to present

Ad-Supported Broadband Video Destinations

--    Comparable to broadcast and cable network qualitative content

--   More addressable and behavioral targeted reach of segments of all video viewership 

--   2006 to present

Streaming Video Services

--   Comparable to broadcast, cable and premium channel qualitative content

--    Subscription bases surpassing non-ad-supported competitors

--    2011 to present

Stable Talk 

In his last sea voyage, Gulliver is introduced to the Houyhnhnms, a race of rational thinking horses that lord over brutish humanlike creatures called Yahoos. Although they come to appreciate his semblance of reason – unlike other Yahoos, he is deemed a threat to their civilization and banished back to England where he spends hours each day speaking with horses in his stables and in effect going insane.

At the Google NewFront, Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt, when asked about the future of television or video, declined to forecast that Internet video would displace television watching and instead declared, “That’s already happened,” so reported the press. Is anyone else aware of that phenomenon? Or is this a wishful staple conversation among the digerati.

This year, similarly to years past, media pundits expect broadband video revenue generation to increase healthily in terms of percentage growth; however, in real dollars, 2012’s $2.3 billion in ad revenue is projected to grow to $3 billion and change, which will not have a meaningful impact on the enhanced traditional TV realm.

At this juncture, as in the past, it will be difficult to ascertain the effect of streaming video services on consumption of TV programming that contains any form of commercialization. Presently, services like Netflix and Amazon, are not ad supported and given the non-transparency of program viewership and the continued reported growth of per household viewing of broadcast and cable derived programming regardless of screen, a significant impact on the ad supported realm is not imagined. However, as in years past, there will be a plethora of cord cutting articles forecasting the impending doom of traditional pay TV/multichannel video program distribution (MVPD) platforms.

Measurement and research services, such as Nielsen, Rentrak and eMarketer, have reported that traditional TV viewing has never been stronger per household regardless of the prioritization of the screen, and that ad supported dollars are holding steady as TV network extensions (broadband, ad supported VOD, mobile, portable and disabled fast forwarding) provide more surface area to aggregate viewers and dollars.

In closing, based upon the trade’s coverage of this year’s New & Old Fronts, the static quo should remain intact, though with some minor variations, at least until next year’s New & Old Fronts. 

When my son and I finished our reading assignment, he queried if the Yahoos depicted in "Gulliver’s Travels" had any relationship to the antiquating portal Yahoo. A conversation for another day, my son.