• by David Kaplan , November 10, 2004

Attention TV critics and media forecasters: your services are no longer needed, because thanks to a new analytic tool, you are now obsolete--at least according to Interpublic Group's Initiative, which has just entered into a joint venture with trendspotter TVtracker.com and tech company Trendum.

The three companies have created PropheSEE, a software tool designed to evaluate key aspects of a television series' popularity and forecast a fledgling show's potential success with viewers when still in its early stages.

According to a statement from the companies, "in a number of cases, PropheSEE has even been able to identify 'sleeper hits' months ahead of first air date."

PropheSEE is powered by Trendum's technology, which analyzes both the amount and the sentiment of Internet discussions about TV programming that occurs in public online forums, discussion boards, and newsgroups.

But doesn't every company have some sort of optimizer that does the same thing? "While there are existing sources that monitor the quantity of mentions and some that actually might provide some level of evaluative overlay, PropheSEE represents the first time that advanced Internet sorting technology, program engagement measures, and quality development data have been combined," said Stacey Lynn Koerner, executive vice president, director of global research integration, Initiative.

At minimum, the PropheSEE product will give Initiative an early "health check" of new programming that goes beyond initial ratings performance.

Aside from offering a virtual crystal ball to advertisers, PropheSEE will allow advertisers who one way or another tie-in with the programming to "better gauge elements that are driving viewer engagement and align their messages appropriately."

The tool grew out of a two-year project of Initiative's that aims to study audience engagement.