• by Seana Mulcahy , November 15, 2004

If you're like me, you probably had a heck of a busy week with business and industry events including Ad:Tech and the MITX Awards show. On the weekends I try and pick up the slack in my personal life. I went to a large brick-and-mortar store to pick up some necessities. Wow was I surprised: Parking spots were few and far between, sale signage and fliers cluttered the store, holiday help wanted signs were all over the place, and Christmas trees were up. Oh and not to mention, we had 4 to 6 inches of snow here in Boston.

I quickly thought about the date and realized we are headed dead smack into the holiday season. After researching I found that about 50 percent of all U.S. consumers have begun their holiday shopping. According to Retail Forward Forecasts, this year is predicted to be the best holiday season since 1999. The forecast is for 6 to 6.5 percent year-over-year growth in the fourth quarter for key measures of holiday sales in the following key retail sectors: general merchandise, apparel, furniture, and other specialty stores (GAFO). The fastest growing holiday sector is online over brick-and-mortar and catalog.

Holiday Retail Sales Results* (Fourth Quarter Year-over-Year Growth)

1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004
10.5%	8.0%	8.8%	4.0%	5.1%	5.1%	6.8%	8.5%	4.0%	2.7%	2.9%	6.5%	6.5%

*For GAFO, Home Improvement and Non-Store Retail Lines of Trade Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce and the Retail Forward, Inc.

Retail Forward expects online retail sales to reach $22 billion in the fourth quarter compared to $17.5 billion last holiday season. The holiday season typically accounts for a quarter of the retail industry's sales.

Shoppers are still price conscious and practical though. According to a ShopperScape study:

- Twenty-six percent of all consumers say they plan to spend more of their holiday budgets on gift cards and gift certificates than they did last year.
- Popular categories for the upcoming holiday season include clothing, electronics, sporting goods, toys, and games. Over 50 percent of all consumers are more concerned about finding the lowest price for holiday gifts this year.

Online shoppers tend to start their holiday shopping early (53%). However, most eTailers don't begin online promotions until after Halloween. Only 14 percent of all eTailers launched campaigns earlier.

"Online shoppers seem to be leading the charge to start the holiday season earlier every year," said Scott Silverman, executive director of Shop.org. "Online retailers who wait until November to begin holiday promotions might miss out on sales opportunities."

There are some more stats to be happy about if you are or represent an online retailer:

- Over 50% of online shoppers plan to use the Internet more than last holiday season to comparison shop
- 86% research gifts for others
- 74% buy gifts for others
- 53% use the Internet to buy gifts for themselves (that would be me)

The National Retail Federation's "2004 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey," conducted by BIGresearch for NRF, found that the average consumer plans to spend $702.03 on the holidays, up 4.5 percent over last year. Total holiday spending this year is estimated to reach $219.9 billion.

So where will shopper's holiday budgets go?

The largest percentage will go to gifts for family (about $406); the next amount, about $71, will be spent on friends; co-workers garner about $22; for others, like babysitters, teachers, etc. about $41 will be spent. The remaining money goes to food, flowers, decorations, cards, and postage.

So if you are one of these eTailers, have you cranked up your online budget to promote your wares? If so, post some tips, tricks, results, or comments to the SPIN board. If not, what are you waiting for? More than a third of consumers will begin their holiday shopping in November with one in four waiting until December. Don't miss the boat. Now back to completing my order for 1,200 thread count sheets for $129.99...