Reed Hastings, chief executive officer of Netflix -- a prominent TV disrupter -- believes TV’s demise is only 16 years away. Make that 2030.
We don’t know if Hastings was really serious. But with all the digital disruption over the last decade and a half, many folks must have had similar thoughts about traditional TV’s death.
If the process of choosing a TV show to watch --- not based on a network, not based on linear viewing schedule -- continues to evolve, then yes, one could assume the traditional ways of watching TV could be ending.
You might wonder about “live” TV programming: big sports contests and other major real-time video content, perhaps music and theater.
Well, that’s not going away. Maybe the new TV model will be to funnel that to a live channel, with subchannel segments.
Hastings wasn’t exactly specific about what would happen next -- like where “traditional” discovery of TV shows would land. Sixteen years from now, would that be coming from social media, our predictive viewing history, key friends and family recommendations?
We’d all like to know where this thing is going -- thus traditional media players have completed a wide-ranging set of deals, working to have their toes in the water of many new digital places at the same time.
What about measurement? We’re counting on media research companies, including Nielsen, to keep to their goals about “total audience” -- hopefully much sooner than 2030.