• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, June 8, 2005

Visions of a hot cable upfront may ultimately mean some new reading glasses or a new card deck for media prognosticators.

Remember earlier this year? Springtime witnessed many media buying futurists calling on cable to siphon anywhere from $500 million to nearly $1 billion from the broadcast networks. From the current day prospective -- with all the broadcast networks virtually done -- one wonders if cable will even grab $300 million in additional revenues.

What went wrong? What always goes wrong when people can be found drinking that very red television Kool-Aid - upfront and back-down indigestion.

Sure, cable is still a relative bargain on a unit price basis - and sure advertisers are looking to save money from the ever-hungry broadcast networks. But something unexpectedly occurred this year, say media buyers. The networks, in particular, ABC, were priced reasonably. That all but put the kibosh on cable's aggressive plans.

Big established cable networks, with each passing year, add too many gross ratings points to the marketplace. This year it caught up to them. A glut of GRPs virtually always means a softening of prices - which in turn can typically yield lower overall revenue.

The bad news for some mature cable networks is that they are now looking at doing deals at similar cost per thousand viewer [CPM] increases to the broadcast networks. This year that will range from 2 to 5 percent. But some networks won't even see those numbers. Media buyers are already talking about flat pricing for some networks. Or worse - negative numbers for Discovery's ailing TLC network.

If any one network did the siphoning, it was ABC - gaining the most of any network, $500 million, jumping to $2.1 billion from $1.6 billion a year ago. CBS picked up anywhere from $200 million to $300 million versus a year ago. Much of this came out of the NBC's hide.

ABC and CBS did their damage with relatively small 4 to 6 percent price increases. All this came when some major cable network groups -- testing the waters in an attempt to do deals before the broadcast networks -- came up cold.

Now the heat is on. Looking at this scenario, cable network executives must already be unpacking summer vacation clothes.