Commentary

Paramount-WBD Merger: Adding A TikTok Side Benefit?

Decades ago, we might have worried about media consolidation of strong, TV-network-based companies.

Congressional calls against the rising amalgamation of media power seem to have lower volume these days. But perhaps we need to look at the bigger picture -- like when it concerns the diversity of powerful, family-controlled media.

Let’s start with the possibility of Paramount Skydance merging with Warner Bros. Discovery -- especially in light of what continues to be a major issue: TV news content.

Should we be worried about CBS News being combined with CNN? Not sure that would be a problem with plenty of other news media platforms -- with a diversity of voices.

But consider David Ellison (now CEO of Paramount Skydance) and his father Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle. That’s the same older Ellison who helped provide $6 billion in financing for the Paramount Skydance deal.

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Ellison is now closing in on an equity position in social media juggernaut TikTok. Increasingly, users are getting their news content from social-media platforms -- and TikTok has a reach of 170 million in the U.S., with around 82 million daily active users.

A Trump Administration-backed TikTok deal will give the U.S. (and corporate equity owners) more control.

And yes, this is the same administration that sued and then settled a deal with CBS News for $16 million because of an edited “60 Minutes” interview with then Presidential candidate Kamala Harris -- all for Skydance to get the government approval of its Paramount deal.

From a business perspective, perhaps the biggest threat might be in combining major movie/TV studios under one roof. Inside Hollywood executives worry about layoffs and continuing decline in the number of theatrical movie releases.

On the flip side, KPMG US estimates that total annual U.S. content spend is still growing at a 10% compounded annual growth rate -- now exceeding $200 billion -- as wide- ranging platforms, streaming and otherwise, seek more movies and TV shows.

This is surely one area that Skydance Media has been focused on -- the mothership of a new company going forward.

A somewhat lesser focus may be those struggling cable TV networks where the company wants to reimagine some of its big brands -- MTV, Nickelodeon and VH1. This could also include WBD’s TNT, TBS, and Discovery Channel, going forward, if Paramount makes a WBD deal.

The rub is where the profits come from. Bernstein Research estimates 70% of cash flow (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) would still come from Paramount-WBD linear networks -- $8.1 billion of the estimated $11.5 billion.

And we all know where linear TV networks are heading these days. So does all that means less concerns, from an anti-competitive perspective?

Maybe -- narrowly speaking.

One final piece of the puzzle is brands and advertisers.

Surely they continue to worry about the all-important media reach of potential consumers. The CBS Television Network gives them that. What would TikTok -- even tangentially aligned with Paramount Skydance -- now mean?

TikTok is a social media platform primarily known for users-general short-form videos focused on entertainment -- dance challenges, comedy, music, and lifestyle content.

Maybe we need to go back to when CBS and MTV were originally put under the same corporate roof.

Music videos and hard-news content may take another interesting marketing turn.

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