According to the overview of the BIGresearch Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey in early in mid-July, consumers are anxious and conservative. In summary, their major findings are:
Some of the significant analysis includes these observations:
With rising gas prices and the recent London terror bombings on minds, consumer confidence drops to 43.7%. As can be expected, worry over political and national security issues increases two points to 18.0% in July, which ends a two month decline...still lower than one year ago (24.3%), says the report.
Contrary to the dip in the unemployment rate in June, faltering confidence and worry about international affairs seems to have consumers fearing a rise in layoffs over the next six months...those believing there will be "more" rises to 31.8% (v. 29.7% in June). However, personal concerns with becoming laid off flat to down slightly from June, now at 4.1% and down from 5.0% in '04.
Investor confidence in the stock market is up slightly from June...59.8% report that they'd definitely/probably invest, compared to 59.2% last month.
This month, fewer consumers plan to pay with cash more often and decrease overall spending. Top financial plans "pay down debt" and "increase savings" remain flat from June and down from '04, so it appears that debt and savings are losing out in order to accommodate higher prices at the pump.
Almost one-third (31.5%) of consumers are decreasing vacation travel, 27.1% of drivers are reducing dining out, one in five (21.8%) are reeling in spending on clothing, 16.3% have delayed a major purchase, and 15.6% are cutting back at the grocery store.
Six month purchase intentions are down in July for most big-ticket items: computer, furniture, home appliances, house, major home improvement/repair, RV/boat, stereo equipment, DVD/VCR, and digital camera. Car/truck, jewelry, and TV flat from last month.
Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook | ||
Category | June 05 | July 04 |
Children's | UP | UP |
Toys and Games | DOWN | DOWN |
Women's Dress | DOWN | DOWN |
CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books | DOWN | DOWN |
Women's Casual | DOWN | UP |
Electronics | DOWN | UP |
Men's Dress | DOWN | FLAT |
Groceries | DOWN | DOWN |
Men's Casual | DOWN | UP slightly |
Home Improvement | DOWN | DOWN |
Shoes | DOWN | DOWN |
Lawn & Garden | DOWN | DOWN |
HBC | DOWN | UP |
Home Furniture | DOWN | DOWN |
Dining Out | DOWN | DOWN |
Decorative Home Furnishings | DOWN | UP |
Sporting Goods | DOWN | DOWN |
Linens/Bedding/Draperies | DOWN | FLAT |
Source: BIGresearch, july 2005 |
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