• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, August 3, 2005

Now that Lance Armstrong has retired, what will Discovery Channel do to make sure it gets the most out of the $10 million in marketing the media company spends per year for the Discovery Channel Cycling Team?

The good news is that the team has already cashed in - now having two different Discovery Channel cyclists winning the two different Grand Tour races - the Giro d'Italia (Paolo Salvodelli) and the Tour de France (Lance Armstrong). Few major bicycling sponsors can make that claim.

Now the real work starts, translating the patina of a retired-Armstrong for Discovery's own network marketing and programming needs.

When Discovery entered the sport - announced last year just before Armstrong went after his historic sixth Tour de France -- executives claimed the plethora of a big international cycling team (expanded because of the demands of a new ProTour) would translate into viewers around the world buzzing about Discovery's different global channels.

So far, the jury is still out. Discovery shows with Armstrong as the centerpiece have just modest ratings performers. Those shows includes TLC's "Overhaulin'," where girlfriend Sheryl Crow bought Armstrong a Pontiac GTO for some overhauling; on Discovery Health Channel, there was a show about how cancer victims were inspired by Armstrong's own cancer survivor story.

Little has been done, however, to spin other cyclists or international programming efforts. Discovery is still in year one of the its deal -- one where Lance Armstrong still dominates. So it may be unfair to make any dollars and cents comparisons just yet.

But an Associated Press story went ahead anyway, trying to predict the performance from Discovery's predecessor, the U.S. Postal Service. The story said the former sponsor of Armstrong's cycling team spent $25 million over the last four years and that the Postal Service "claimed to have generated $18 million in revenue" from that deal.

Hard to believe anyone could extrapolate specific revenue numbers from a marketing sports sponsorship? And what kind of revenue was it anyway? Was it incremental revenue of foreign or U.S. customers of USPS postal products or services? How can anyone calculate or identify only these revenues as a direct result of USPS's sponsorship of the team? Few entertainment/sports marketing efforts can ever calculate specific return-on-investment (ROI) in terms of actual revenue.

With Armstrong winning seven Tour de France races, Discovery Channel is no doubt basking in what a MasterCard commercial might say is a 'priceless' marketing afterglow.

But, like holding water, it's tough to hold and to describe its shape. It may be spread out among increased Internet visits to Discovery, general increases in its ratings, additional advertising sales, higher subscriber carriage, more press coverage, or better perceived customer value.

The real test starts now for the cable network, when Discovery will be riding up the big mountains with no Lance Armstrong pulling the team along.