• by Ken Liebeskind , September 6, 2002

The Television Bureau of Advertising released its forecast for the television industry's next two years at its Annual Forecast Conference in New York yesterday. TVB projects total spot revenue will grow 1-3% in 2003 and 7-9% in 2004, suggesting this year's rebound will accelerate over the next two years.

TVB projects local spot will grow 1-3% next year; national will be flat-2%; network will be up 4-6%; syndication up 2-4% and cable up 3-5%.

In 2004, local spot will be up 6-8% and national up 8-10%.

TVB derives its estimates from Wall Street and financial analysts and station representatives.

TVB began making two-year forecasts two years ago because of the structure of the business, according to association president Chris Rohrs. "It has changed dramatically since the Olympics switched to a two-year frequency," he said. "Odd years will always face tough comparisons to even years, when spending on both the Olympics and political ads show up. A two-year forecast is called for." Thus, the projections for 1994 reflect the high revenue expected from Olympics and political ads.

In remarks to the audience before the numbers were presented, Rohrs discussed the uncertainty of the overall economy, which continues to thwart the stability of the market. "In such an environment, advertisers need to target their best prospects, keep their message out there with continuity and protect their most effective dollars," he said. "Media investments will have to deliver flexibility, affordability, effectiveness and accountability."