• by Joe Mandese , September 7, 2005

A consensus seems to be emerging on the revised outlook for U.S. ad spending, but opinions on the results for specific media still vary, according to two new ad tracking studies released Tuesday.

The reports from media agency Carat and syndicated ad tracking firm TNS Media Intelligence (formerly CMR) both peg U.S. ad spending up about 4.5 percent. That's slightly lower than the 5.7 first-half growth rate for measured media estimated by Nielsen Monitor-Plus, but it's higher than some other recent forecasts. Significantly, neither Carat nor TNS made any note of the effects of Hurricane Katrina, rising oil prices, or any other disaster-related events on U.S. ad spending plans.

Instead, both focused on ordinary cyclical events, like comparisons to the 2004 Olympics/Elections ad spending boom.

"The first half ad expenditure numbers demonstrate sustained momentum from the first quarter of the year," stated Steven Fredericks, president-CEO of TNS Media Intelligence. "The 4.5 percent growth rate for the period is slightly higher than our forecast of 4.1 percent issued earlier this year. The advertising market continues to outperform the general economy but the third quarter will be a much more difficult comparison period because of last year's stimulus from the Summer Olympics and national elections."

The results for specific media are markedly different among the ad trackers, which is attributable to differing research methods. However, both TNS' and Nielsen's estimates put other media growth rates above the Internet's. TNS estimates that online ad spending rose only 9.4 percent, behind the expansion of cable TV (+15.3 percent) and local magazines (+24.4 percent) and about the same as outdoor (+9.3 percent) and consumer magazines (+9.1 percent).

Monitor-Plus estimated that online ad spending rose only 12.6 percent, behind Spanish-language TV and cable TV.

First Half Media Spending

                     Jan-June 2005   Jan-June 2004    % Change  
                       (Millions)      (Millions)  
Local Newspapers         $12,238.3
$12,029.0       +1.7%  
Network TV               $11,692.8       $11,214.1       +4.3%  
Consumer Magazines       $10,500.6        $9,621.8       +9.1%  
Cable TV                  $7,935.8
$6,881.5      +15.3%  
Spot TV                   $7,339.3        $7,819.1       -6.1%  
Internet                  $3,961.8        $3,621.9       +9.4%  
Local Radio               $3,589.9
$3,537.3       +1.5%  
B-to-B Magazines          $2,523.7        $2,461.5       +2.5%  
Syndicated TV             $1,994.6        $1,924.9       +3.6%  
Hispanic TV               $1,953.4
$1,889.6       +3.4%  
Outdoor                   $1,693.9        $1,550.1       +9.3%  
National Newspapers       $1,688.8        $1,642.1       +2.8%  
National Spot Radio       $1,243.3
$1,214.3       +2.4%  
Newspaper Inserts           $778.7          $744.2       +4.6%  
Sunday Magazines            $752.8          $698.8       +7.7%  
Network Radio               $486.9
$503.6       -3.3%  
Local Magazines             $200.0          $160.8      +24.4%  
Total                    $70,574.6       $67,514.6       +4.5%  

Source: TNS Media Intelligence