• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, September 16, 2005

In another round of mixed signals for the ad economy, American Business Media Thursday reported one of the worst recent months yet for business magazine ad pages, and the Television Bureau of Advertising reported a "flat" first half. The new revelations of souring ad demand, come as ad demand seems to be building for the network prime-time advertising marketplace (see today's top story), and as demand for some media - especially online and outdoor - continue to soar.

The ABM sought to put a positive spin on the July results, stating that advertising revenue growth "remains healthy in the third quarter," but that July revenues rose only 0.26 percent. Ad pages, which are generally considered the more vital statistic for advertising demand, fell 4.75 percent in July, the worst month yet this year for the business press.

"It is a good sign that print revenue continues to show positive movement even through the summer months," stated Gordon T. Hughes, II, president-CEO of the ABM. "The modest progress of print continues to be an additive factor in the robust growth of business media and information industry overall."

In recent months, the ABM has been touting the growing role of B-to-B revenues from digital advertising sales and events and trade shows put on by business publishers.

The business press news follows the recent release of August results for consumer magazines, which saw ad pages decline 2.2 percent from August 2004, according to the Publishers Information Bureau. While it may be true that magazine ad demand lags in the summer months, the year-over-year declines suggest that relative demand is eroding for magazines just as most publishers begin negotiating 2006 calendar year deals with agencies and advertisers.

In a research note sent to investors on Thursday, influential Merrill Lynch analyst Lauren Rich Fine issued the ominous warning: "We expect industry ad pages to drop in September, the largest month in the quarter. Comparisons remain difficult for the rest of the year."

Fine also noted that August results for newspaper advertising was "unexpectedly weak." Citing a "negative change in retail advertising momentum," several big newspaper publishers reported lower than expected advertising volume for August. "In most cases, we lowered estimates as we do not sense a big improvement into September," said Fine.

The Radio Advertising Bureau recorded another down month for radio advertising in July and on Thursday, the TVB released a statement saying, "Broadcast television ad revenues were flat in the second quarter of 2005 compared to the same period last year, reflecting the absence of political and Olympic revenues."

The big bright spots continue to be online, outdoor, and cable TV, the only major media to be recording double-digit advertising growth rates.