In part reflecting accelerated growth driven by the COVID stay-at-home mode, Netflix now reports some 193 million subscribers worldwide.
But pandemic’s effects aside, that number could more than double, to 500 million, by 2030, projects RBC analyst Mark Mahaney.
On Tuesday, Mahaney raised his price target by 15% to $610 a share and affirmed an outperform rating, based on his expectation that Netflix will up its share of global fixed-broadband households (excluding China) from today’s 29% to 57%, reported The Street.
The growth prediction is based primarily on Netflix’s prospects in international markets. That includes the U.K., where 72% of RBC’s survey respondents say they watch Netflix, up from 67% a year ago, and India, where 49% of subscribers also subscribe to Netflix Mobile plans.
In the U.S., RBC’s consumer research shows 66% of U.S. households reporting that they watch Netflix, down 2 percentage points from last quarter.
However, RBC noted that it views Netflix’s U.S. “contribution margins” as demonstrating the company’s profitability, adding that historically declining churn rates and other factors suggest that margins will expand further.
Seriously, analysts work on facts and hard data.
To-date I have not seen any facts for 2021-2030. Please correct me if I have missed it.
This is prognostication, or at best, forecasting.
So why not try this for a lede "Analyst: Netflix Might Not Reach 500 Million Subscribers By 2030". Or "But Then Again NetFlix Might Reach 500 Million Subscribers By November 2, 2029".