Commentary

Consumer Confidence Up; Driving and Dining Still Down

Consumer Confidence Up; Driving and Dining Still Down

According to the BIGresearch Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey  in mid-October, consumer confidence gains 4 points to reach 37.3% in October compared to September's 33.4%... still off about 7 points off from last year. Consumers continue to proceed with caution, though, with 50.1% still say they've become more practical in their purchasing in the last 6 months, only a slight decline from September, and a gain of more than 10 points from last year.

With pump prices edging down over the last 30 days, consumers are taking less dramatic measures to make room in their budgets for fuel expenses (compared to September)

  • 53.9% still say they'll simply drive less (down from 59.8% )
  • 40.7% say they'll reduce dining out (down from 42.1%) 
  • 38.9% will decrease vacation travel at (from 43.4%). 

Compared to 2004, though, the cost of motoring is taking a toll on wallets:

How Fluctuating Gas Prices Impact Spending (percent of respondents, rounded)

 

October, 2004

October, 2005

Delayed major purchase

15.0%

24.0%

Reduced dining out

26.0

41.0

Decreased vacation/travel

31.0

39.0

Increased carpooling

4.0

8.0

Driving less

na

54.0

Spending less on groceries

16.6

22.5

Spending less on clothing

22.0

31.0

No major impact

41.0

23.0

Source: BIGresearch, Consumer Intentions & Actions, October 2005

As temperatures drop, the study finds that the respondents are planning to cope by:

  • Lowering their thermostats (47.7%)
  • Utilizing budget billing (20.7%),
  • Weather stripping windows (15.5%)

·      Heating up with a fireplace/wood burning stove (12.4%)

 Budget-conscious consumers are still fashion-conscious. 10.6% consumers that newest trends and styles of apparel are important, a rise from 8.3% last year, while 38.2% value familiar clothing labels, up from 34.5% last year.

 This month's Consumer Migration Index (CMI) for Children's Clothing shows that discounters Target and Wal-Mart have the edge over the competition. With +3.6 and +2.3, respectively, both stores have more new customers entering than customers exiting.  Sears and Kmart fall short with consumers at -1.9 and -2.4, respectively:

  • 14.4% cited high prices as the top reason they switched Children's Clothing stores
  • 10.9%) inconvenient location

·      7.3% poor selection  

Retail Merchandise Categories 90 Day Outlook
(October  05 compared to September 05 and October 04)

 

September 05

October 04

Children's

Up

Down

Toys And Games

Up

Down

Women's Dress

Up

Down

Cds/Dvds/Videos/Books

Up

Down

Women's Casual

Up

Down

Electronics

Up

Down

Men's Dress

Up

Down

Groceries

Up

Down

Men's Casual

Up

Down

Home Improvement

Down

Down

Shoes

Up

Down

Lawn & Garden

Down

Down

Hbc

Flat

Down

Home Furniture

Down

Down

Dining Out

Up

Down

Decorative Home Furnishings

Down

Down

Sporting Goods

Up

Down

Linens/Bedding/Draperies

Down

Down

Source: BIGresearch, Consumer Intentions & Actions, October 2005

You can find more information on this study here.

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