Don’t trust your political polls if a survey only asks who you want as your elected official. Make sure that person is also asking who your social circle backs.
But don’t stop there.
How about revealing what TV shows and theatrical movies your friends and family consume?
In addition to its usual “probability” polls -- where respondents are asked who they want as
President -- the USC/Dornsife Daybreak presidential poll also asked a social-circle
question: Who will your family/friends be voting for?
The probability question is what many pollsters typically do -- concerning one’s overall choice for president. The problem this year
-- as in 2016 -- many polls were fairly off from actual results.
Just before the election, many polls had Joe Biden up by 10 percentage points over Donald Trump, versus current actual popular
results, that currently have Biden 3.8% higher over Trump via the popular vote.
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When factoring in “social-circle” results -- in a post-poll effort -- USC says data was more in-line
with actual results. Turned out, there was seemingly more support for Trump than anticipated. (Biden is still the winner.)
Why the question? Jill Darling, survey director of the USC Daybreak
poll, speaking to NPR’s “Marketplace” said:
“People may not want to admit they’re voting for a very polarizing candidate, particularly if they’re in a
situation where their family and friends aren’t voting for them.”
This reminds me of some entertainment surveys -- “soft research” offering data on TV shows,
“popular” TV networks, theatrical movies, results that may be skewed.
Will some consumers admit to watching hours worth of guilty-pleasure cable TV reality shows? How many adult
moviegoers own up to seeing hard-core horror tributes? Conversely, can we find TV consumers who admit to watching serious historical, but perhaps dry, nonfiction shows on genre-specifc cable TV
networks.
Putting aside panel-based and/or census-based measurers, one can imagine entertainment consumers may want to tell pollsters -- and, possibly, their public -- what looks
good.
Perhaps surveys should ask: What kinds of media are your family/friends consuming media tonight? “Grey’s Anatomy,” “Hannity”, “The Crown,”
“Real Housewives” or “Anderson Cooper 360”? Step right up and cast your vote.