• by Tom Hespos , December 20, 2005

Before I jump on the bandwagon and offer up my predictions for 2006, let's take a look at how I did this past year. For those keeping score at home, last year I made some fairly bold predictions, some of which came true, others of which fizzled. Let's go down the checklist and see where I did well and where I whiffed....

My first prediction in late 2004 was that clients would get smart about audience fragmentation. Well, I'd like to think that I was partially right. After all, the phrase "the long tail" has been on the mind of many a marketer lately, and advertisers are spending more money on emerging media than they ever have before. To be fair, however, I still think many advertisers are wondering where the heck their audience is.

I also predicted that we would see a backlash against digital video recorders priced on subscription models because a new generation of commercial-nuking devices would be available that would not involve ongoing fees. I think I whiffed on this one, but I still think the backlash is coming. TiVo is struggling amid increased competition from cable companies. Time-shifting is no longer cutting edge, and the next big thing is place-shifting (streaming your favorite content from your home to portable devices). Many of these place-shifting devices, such as Sling Media's Slingbox, are not priced on the subscription model. Give it time.

Last year, I also said that satellite radio players and digital audio players would converge. While I didn't see the debut of the satellite iPod I thought I would be asking Santa for this Christmas, I will note that Sirius recently introduced a small portable player that can save satellite content for later playback, and can also handle MP3 and WMA files. Perhaps it's not a category killer, but I'd venture to say this is what portable digital audio devices will look like once everybody gets over their infatuation with video iPods. Hey, whaddya know? A prediction that came true!

I also predicted the increased popularity of:

Self-service online advertising like search (check)

Internet radio (check, especially with Yahoo offering access to recently cut-off Howard Stern fans)

Blogging and podcasting (BIG check)

Upfront commitments for Internet advertising (check)

Agency holding companies acquiring independent online shops (check)

I was pretty off-base with the prediction about the FCC exceeding its mandate and accelerating the controversy over indecency standards. But hey, I'm a libertarian and I was ticked about Michael Powell and the Morality Police at the time. By the way, I think this is still coming. The more popular subscription services and satellite radio become, the closer we get to seeing a showdown.

By and large, I wasn't too far off with many of the predictions last year, but I'd like to do better this year. Stay tuned for my next column, the first Tuesday of 2006, when I peer into my crystal ball once again.