• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, April 17, 2023

So if every streamer platform that has a large number of "sharer" users -- people who use others' logins/passwords -- is in flux, what happens to the overall streaming marketplace when it endures a downturn?

New rules at Netflix say people who live in the same household are not legitimate sharers. Those who are not in your household -- even young adults who are away at college -- will need to pay.

Netflix has identified 100 million potential sharers who could be possible paying subscribers. Morgan Stanley estimates Netflix could get 20% to 30% -- over time.

But how does all this affect all streaming business -- especially for the media consumers looking to trim back the number of platforms, currently at around three to five?  

In addition, what then happens to those high-profile no-advertising subscription-platform options -- Netflix, Disney+ and HBO Max, for example -- over time, or even in the near term, as in a likely looming recession?

Netflix global paid net additions, according to a consensus of media analysts, look to still be in recovery mode over the next few years -- growing by around 16.3 million this year, 16.6 million in 2024, and 15.8 million in 2025.

For many this appears to be decent recovery for Netflix -- which witnessed only 8.9 million global additions a year ago. Morgan Stanley -- which projects more conservative gains over the next few years versus other analysts -- says net additions will continue to accelerate “despite slowing content investment”. 

The new advertising option has a lot to do with it. But all this does come at a price. ARPU (the average revenue per month per users only looks to grow 6% or so in the coming years for Netflix -- down from the 11% to 13% gains of a few years ago. 

To a great extent, this seems to capture what remains of a slower streaming market -- as well as Netflix being a “must have” as one of a streaming home's basic streaming platforms to build around. 

So that's the good news for the big -- and still only -- profitable streaming service. 

These dynamics are also a positive, according to some analysts, for Disney+ -- which also launched an advertising-option at around the same time as Netflix. 

But what are consumers exactly getting? Expectations are that Netflix will maintain - but not grow -- its $17 billion in yearly spend on content, originals or acquisitions. Disney looks to make some moderations or cuts as well.

If consumers continue to flock to ad-supported streaming or FAST services this seems to alter the value proposition -- and promise of streaming: Choosing what programming you really want, with the ability to cancel or signup quickly, with a little as possible interruption from advertisers -- all at a lower price point.

Some estimates now say an average household’s streaming monthly cost can be around $50 to $55. This comes close to legacy pay TV providers -- cable, satellite and the like -- in the $60 to $65 range.

Will consumers and “sharers” continue to pay up? Is streaming still a good deal?