• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, December 29, 2023

In the days surrounding Nikki Haley's gaffe in failing to answer a radio interviewer's question, "What was the cause of the United States Civil War," she has backpedaled, walked it back and in other ways, doubled down, but the cynic in me wonders whether it was a gaffe at all.

To that end, let's see how she does in the next wave of polls -- especially among her supposed base many of whom might actually have appreciated her initial response.

I think it's fair for me to raise that question based on how well certain candidates have performed in polls after making even more outrageous, seemingly "unAmerican" statements only to see their numbers actually grow. "Vermin," anyone?

If Haley's numbers hold steady -- or dare I say, actually rise -- among potential Republican voters, I think we all have to ask ourselves the most important question of all: What is the Republican party's actual constituency? You know, the one so many Republican leaders -- including another top candidate, Ron DeSantis -- who have pushed to ban the teaching of critical race theory and, you know, other reminders of what actually caused the Civil War.

I mean, anything any of the other leading Republican candidates say is just performative at this point, because we all already know where the candidate most likely to be nominated actually stands on those issues, whether or not he's actually on many of the ballots.

We also know where his base stands.

We also know where his party stands.

It's not secret. They've been saying the quiet parts out loud for so long that I'm only surprised when one of them forgets to say the loud part, even quietly: Slavery caused the Civil War.

The reality is the same Republican Party that ostensibly won the original "war between the states," seems to be doing everything it can to start the next one.