• by February 14, 2006

While the average number of consumer magazine ad pages fell almost 2 percent in January compared to the same period the previous year, there was one category that showed more than a glimmer of light in an otherwise relatively bleak landscape.

Publishers Information Bureau figures released last week revealed that ad pages in newsweeklies showed surprising growth in January 2006--with most of them registering double-digit gains, while the average for all other consumer titles fell 1.9 percent.

Merrill Lynch analyst Karl Choi noted the upswing in a report released Monday, in which he pointed out that Business Week and Newsweek each reported ad page gains in excess of 18 percent for January 2006. At the same time, U.S. News & World Report showed a 12 percent gain--only Time, the granddaddy of all newsweeklies, reported a decline, dropping 16.8 percent, according to PIB.

Time Associate Publisher Matt Turck discounted the drop. "January is not a telling month," he said. "We feel good about the first quarter as a whole, and we expect to be up in ad pages for the year."

Merrill Lynch's Choi said the weak start for magazines overall was disappointing, but essentially agreed with Turck that January figures can be misleading. "We note that January is a seasonally small month, and it takes time for advertisers to release 2006 ad budgets," Choi wrote. However, he also cited a steep 25 percent decline in automotive advertising that, coupled with that industry's current financial woes, does not bode well for magazines for the remainder of the year.

Steve Greenberger, senior vice president at marketing services firm DJG Marketing, which specializes in the media industry, attributed the newsweeklies' ad page increase to renewed interest in the titles from primarily two advertiser categories.

"There are a few advertising sectors that are starting to come back a little, and that's the technology sector and business-to-business areas," Greenberger said. He said the newsweeklies were benefiting from technology advertising, and the business titles were picking up new business-to-business ads. "The business magazines had taken a partial loss in business-to-business advertising to some of the smaller trade magazines last year--but in essence, there appears to be enough to go around, so that the books that saw a loss at the end of last year are starting to see an influx of business."

PIB and Merrill Lynch statistics appear to bear out Greenberger's thesis. They showed a 16.5 percent ad page increase in the Financial/Insurance/Real estate advertising category in January and a 9.7 percent increase in the Technology sector. Ad categories reporting a decline, in addition to automotive, included Home Furnishings/Supplies (-8.2 percent); Toiletries/Cosmetics (-7.1 percent); Direct Response (-7.1 percent); and Food & Food Products (-6.7 percent).

Neil Ascher, executive vice president of communications services at Zenith Media Services, said the newsweeklies' traditionally short ad closings also may have played a role in the page increases. "I'm not sure if it's indicative of any long-term trend, but the short closings allow the newsweeklies to benefit when clients seem to have additional budget that they can spend," Ascher said. "And we've seen that happen."

The overall 1.9 percent January decline represented a total sale of 13,342.6 ad pages during the month, the second consecutive decline for the first month of the year. The consumer magazine industry is still 0.5 percent below its January 2001 ad page high of 14,079.6.