• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, September 13, 2024

It's been nearly a year since I first reported on AdImpact's prediction that abortion ballot initiative ad spending in the U.S. could swell to half a billion dollars, and this morning, the ad tracking firm published an update suggesting it could be even bigger. Or maybe not.

"Earlier this week, two states saw new spending around their abortion ballot initiatives: Missouri and Florida," AdImpact published in a Friday the 13th edition of its periodic newsletter, noting, "Across the country, Arizona and Nevada are seeing decreased spending around their abortion ballot initiatives."

While AdImpact does not say what the net impact of that tracking will end up being, it so far has not downgraded last year's half billion dollar forecast.

As for Missouri and Florida, Ad Impact notes:

• "Missourians for Constitutional Freedom placed $8.2M in support of Missouri Amendment 3, which enshrines abortion rights in the state constitution. This is the only spending on this ballot initiative so far. A recent poll shows 52% of likely Missouri voters in favor, an eight-point increase from a February poll.

• In Florida, $5.6M has been spent on Amendment 4, which also protects abortion rights in the state constitution. One group represents all of the spending on the amendment: Floridians Protecting Freedom, which has spent $2.3M on it. The Florida Republican party, through various advertisers, has reserved $3.3M in ads against Amendment 4. 

Meanwhile, Nevada and Arizona have both decreased their reserved abortion ballot initiative ad spending.

Stay tuned.