• by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer @mp_research, September 24, 2002

Holiday Retail Sales Forecast Up 4% Over Last Year

The National Retail Federation (NRF) announced today that it is forecasting 2002 holiday retail sales to increase 4.0 percent on a year-over-year basis. Holiday retail sales are sales in November and December for retail stores in general merchandise stores, clothing and clothing accessories stores, furniture and home furnishings stores, electronics and appliance stores, and sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores. This year's moderate sales prediction approximates the 4.3 percent gain seen for the 2000 holiday season. Last year's holiday retail sales were up 5.6 percent -- higher than most industry-watchers had anticipated.

"We anticipate that home-related merchandise and leisure goods will do well this holiday season, and that apparel demand should pick up -- as many consumers have postponed this purchase," said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells.

According to preliminary results from the first installment of the 2002 NRF Holiday Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey, conducted by BIGresearch, consumers plan to take a sensible approach to holiday shopping this year. The majority of consumers surveyed - 62.6 percent - said they plan to spend the same amount on holiday shopping in 2002 as they did last year. Almost one third, or 29.5 percent, said they plan to spend less, while only 7.9 percent said they plan to spend more.

According to the forthcoming survey, consumers who plan to spend less this year on holiday are doing so because they're setting aside money for other purposes, such as supplementing savings or paying down debt. "This holiday (retailers need to) focus on practicality, personal care, authenticity, and essentials." said Gary Drenik, President and CEO of BIGresearch.

For more information about NRF, visit them at www.nrf.com