Online Ad Spend Predicted To Reach $20 Billion

Online's share of U.S. measured media spending is poised to grow to 12 percent in 2006--up from just 10 percent a year ago, projects Madison Avenue's leading source for ad tracking data. TNS Media Intelligence, which Tuesday released a mid-year update of its annual advertising outlook, revised spending estimates for most media downward, but nudged the Internet's ad outlook up considerably from earlier in the year.

TNS, which officially tracks only online display advertising, said such ad spending now is expected to rise 13 percent for full-year 2006--up nearly four percentage points from its January forecast of 9.1 percent--marking the greatest upward revision of any medium over the six-month period.

Steven Fredericks, president-CEO of TNS MI, said the company's initial estimates were far too conservative for online ad spending, and that much of the revision comes from an acceleration in the migration of traditional media ad budgets online.

Although it does not officially calculate other forms of online ad spending, including search, Fredericks said that TNS MI estimated total Internet ad spending would reach $20 billion by year-end, or about 12 percent of a $161 billion 2006 measured media ad pie when search is factored in.

"Last year we just passed the 10 percent range," noted Fredericks, adding: "obviously, the ad expenditure pie is growing and each year is kind of a new record in a sense, but we're also seeing shifts from other media into the Internet."

Fredericks singled out B-to-B magazines and newspapers--and to a lesser extent, consumer magazines and Sunday newspaper magazine supplements--as examples of media that are losing share to the Internet.

"That shift is not slowing down by any means. If anything, we see it speeding up," he said, adding that much of it appears to be going to search.

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