• by Jack Loechner , Staff Writer @mp_research, June 26, 2006

Brazil The People's Choice Three Weeks Ago

Shortly before the World Cup soccer tournaments began, 5,000 Internet users across seven different countries, including England, France, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the U.S., voted for their favorites. Who's to know, but it provides a perspective for water cooler discussions.

According to the comScore Networks online survey, conducted among a multi-country sample to gauge which country was expected to win the World Cup tournament, overall responses across countries were consistent, with respondents tending to vote for either their home country or Brazil, with Brazil proving to be the overall favorite.

Although most often chosen as the expected winner, the percentage of respondents selecting Brazil varied widely by country, with French residents being the most optimistic about the Brazilian team. Only 20% of U.S. respondents picked Brazil to win the tournament.

Percentage of Respondents who Expect Brazil to Win the World Cup Tournament
Responses by Country	Percent Voting for Brazil
France	46%
Spain	41%
Netherlands	36%
Germany	32%
England	30%
Portugal	25%
USA	20%
Source: comScore Networks

In terms of "home team voting", the percentage of respondents voting for their country's team ranged from 61 percent in Portugal to 29 percent among respondents in France, with the French apparently extremely pessimistic about their team's chances of winning the tournament.

The survey found that when the individual country survey responses were compared with the average bookmakers' odds of each country winning, some interesting findings emerged. The Portuguese appeared the most overconfident. However, the U.S. came in a close second with a 33 percent home team vote, compared to only a 2 percent (40 to 1) bookmakers' chance of winning the tournament.

The Overconfidence Index ranged from 1467 for Portugal and 1346 for the U.S., to 399 for England and 373 for Germany. The French actually appeared slightly more overconfident than their German and English counterparts, with the 29 percent home team vote among the French being much higher than the 7 percent bookmaker chance of winning.

Percent of Respondents Voting for their Home Team to Win the World Cup Tournament Ranked by Overconfidence Index*
Country	% Voting for Own Country	Bookmakers' Odds to Win (6/6/06)	Bookmakers' Chance of Winning	Overconfidence Index*
Portugal	61%	23 to 1	4%	1467
USA	33%	40 to 1	2%	1346
Netherlands	42%	14 to 1	7%	623
Spain	29%	16 to 1	6%	488
France	29%	14 to 1	7%	440
England	47%	15 to 2	12%	399
Germany	41%	8 to 1	11%	373
Source: comScore Networks

*The Overconfidence Index is defined as the ratio of the "home team vote" to the official bookmakers' chance of that country winning multiplied by 100. So, for example, the English are four times as optimistic as the average bookmaker that England will win the World Cup.

For the complete release, please visit comScore here