• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, July 12, 2006

Home Box Office always had history on its side--and sometimes, innovation. Just when you thought the pay-cable network couldn't pull off a big creative show, it gave you "Six Feet Under" or "Deadwood."

But now HBO has bigger hurdles to jump--trying to give TV viewers a show with big creative juice and big ratings. With "The Sopranos" close to being whacked--that is, soon to end its run--and "Deadwood" ready for firewood,  HBO will test its mettle in trying to come up with another big breakout, popular-culture-making TV series with lots of viewers.

Of course, HBO will tell you otherwise--that it isn't ruled by ratings. With the exception of "The Sopranos" and its near 9 million viewer average rating this past season, most other HBO shows remain in the 1- to 2-million viewer range.

That means shows in service right now--"Entourage," "Big Love" and "Lucky Louie"--are the heirs apparent as the leading face of HBO.

With "Sex and the City" and "Six Feet Under" already gone, and "Sopranos" on the way to the graveyard, HBO needs a favor from the creative community, perhaps one that they can't refuse: come up with something else revolutionary.

Easier said then done.  NBC's Bob Wright has said HBO can always do more creativity than broadcast networks can; the latter are bound by the whims of advertisers, who in turn, worry about TV pressure groups. 

HBO may not have the same batting average as everyone else--because it makes its own game rules. "Big Love" isn't doing big ratings, and "Entourage" can't really round up a posse.

How long would those concepts--at similar performance levels--last on a schedule on NBC, USA , FX or ABC? Even "Sopranos," as a new show with 9 million viewers, would have a difficult time being renewed on a broadcast network.

HBO looks for the edgiest of TV concepts--those that make viewers slightly uncomfortable yet intrigued:  a ruthless New Jersey crime family, a dysfunctional family's mortuary business, foul-mouthed residents of a growing Western town; or a modern-day polygamist balancing financial debt with familial demands.

What's up next for HBO? Look for the rough spots.