• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, August 1, 2006

NBC used its "Sunday Night Football" package, debuting this fall, to ward off a revenue collapse in the upfront. Now it's time to generate the ratings necessary to prevent a slew of make-goods that could reduce the value of the upfront take. While the regular-season debut is still more than a month away, NBC will have the NFL back on its airwaves after an eight-year hiatus on Sunday, with the pre-season game between Philadelphia and Oakland.

On a conference call Monday, NBC Universal's sports czar Dick Ebersol, forever bullish on his network's performance, suggested that two factors would make the Sunday night package a success: flexible scheduling and top talent in the broadcast booth. In fact, he was so confident NBC football would shine that he implicitly dismissed Sunday competition from ABC's hit "Desperate Housewives" and CBS' strong "Without A Trace," which is shifting to Thursdays.

"This becomes the centerpiece of Sunday night television viewing in the United States from September through the end of December," Ebersol said.

Faced with miserable ratings drops in prime time last season and a potential bloodletting in the upfront, NBC was able to leverage football to help it bring in an estimated $1.8 billion, about the same as a year ago. Even if NBC loses money on the NFL, given its enormous rights fees, the network could benefit overall from the solid promotional platform the weekly prime-time game brings.

NBC is the beneficiary of the NFL allowing flex scheduling for the first time. The network can select late-season games to assure it has compelling match-ups with playoff implications. The schedule for ABC's "Monday Night Football" was etched in stone before the season, and the network often was faced with lackluster games for the final month of play.

The flex scheduling was a principal reason that NBC was willing to sign a six-year deal with the NFL, Ebersol said. "Schedules have always fallen apart in the past. Once you get into November, teams you thought would be great aren't great. Then, you're stuck with some really tough games," Ebersol said Monday.

Perhaps because of some uninspiring late-season games, ratings for "Monday Night Football" on ABC have dropped for the key 18-to-49 demo from a 7.1 in 2002 to a 6.2 last fall.

"MNF" did, however, have the advantage of being the only game of that day. When asked whether some viewers would tune out Sunday nights after a day of blocking and tackling, Ebersol dismissed the notion.

Even though some assert that viewers don't watch sports for the broadcasters, Ebersol said the second harbinger of success for NBC this fall is the estimable and experienced pair of John Madden and Al Michaels, who will call the games. "People will respond to that," he said.

NBC's NFL deal includes Super Bowls in 2009 and 2012, and Ebersol essentially considers those events American holidays. "It's sort of like a day for the country to party. At the same time, people can be curious, [given the] incredible viewing experience of the commercials."

For NBC, if its prime-time fortunes don't improve by Feb 1, 2009, Ebersol suggests the Super Bowl could help. It exposes a huge audience to a scripted program that follows the game. In the past, networks have placed established hits there, hoping to bring in massive ad revenues and further increase future ratings. Or, they have tried to give an emerging show a jolt.

Ebersol praised ABC's strategy last year of slotting in "Grey's Anatomy" after the big game. "It was a very nice hit," he said. "It became a huge hit after it had that incredible episode after the Super Bowl."

Last season, "Grey's" posted an 8.6 in the 18-to-49 demo before the Super Bowl and finished the season with an 8.9.