Commentary

Fuel Down, Confidence Up

Fuel Down, Confidence Up

According to the BIGresearch October Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, consumer attitude towards the economy continued to improve in October. 49.9% of the 7,623 consumers in the survey said they were confident or very confident in chances for a strong economy in the next six months, which is up from 43.4% in September.

Joe Pilotta, VP of Research for BIGresearch, said "... greater confidence in the economy... usually translates into greater spending for the holidays."

The impact of gas prices are also lower as more consumers are saying fluctuating gas prices are having no major impact on their spending, 29.3% versus 24.4% last month. And, consumers are also anticipating lower pump prices at Thanksgiving than they previously expected in September. They anticipate the price of a gallon of gas will be $2.55 by Thanksgiving, which is almost $0.30 less than last month when they anticipated the price to be $2.84 a gallon.

"Consumer expectations are the basis for action, lower price, more cash and greater spend," said Pilotta.

More from the October Consumer Confidence Survey:

Personal, Financial and The Economy:

  • 49.9% contend they are confident/very confident in chances for a strong economy in the next six months, up from last month (43.4%) and '05 (37.6%)
  • Consumers contending they've become more practical in purchasing rises from 39.7% in September to 43.3%. Headed into holiday '05, though, 50.1% cited practicality, so they may be willing to pay more to retailers this year
  • The majority of consumers (52.3%) continue to focus on their needs in purchasing, up from 49.5% in September, but down from 58.5% in '05
  • The outlook for employment in the next six month is slightly improved from last month, and more dramatic compared to '05
  • 33.2% contend there will be "more" layoffs (v. 44.5% last year)
  • 54.7% say "same" (v. 44.4% last year)
  • 12.0% contend "fewer" laoffs (v. 11.1%)
  • 4.8% express concerns about becoming laid off themselves, up from September (3.9%), but down from last year (5.3%)
  • 36.6% plan to pay down debt over the next three months, compared to 41.2% last year
  • 33.6% say they'll decrease overall spending (v. 37.7% in '05)
  • 29.3% contend they'll increase savings (v. 30.9%)

The Immediate Future

The 90 Day Outlook continues to brighten in October from last month and last year, according to the BIGresearch Diffusion index (those who say they'll spend less subtracted from those who'll spend more). Lawn & Garden took the seasonal tumble, but all other categories improved:

Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (October 06 compared to September 06 and October 05)

Category

VS. Sep. 06

VS. Oct. 05

Category

VS. Sep. 06

VS. Oct. 05

Children's

UP

UP

Toys and Games

UP

UP

Women's Dress

UP

UP

CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books

UP

UP

Women's Casual

UP

UP

Electronics

UP

UP

Men's Dress

UP

UP

Groceries

UP

UP

Men's Casual

UP

UP

Home Improvement

UP

UP

Shoes

UP

UP

Lawn & Garden

DOWN

UP

HBC

UP

UP

Home Furniture

UP

UP

Dining Out

UP

UP

Decorative Home Furnishings

UP

UP

Sporting Goods

UP

UP

Linens/Bedding/Draperies

UP

UP

Source: BIGresearch, October 2006

This information is contained in BIGresearch's October Executive Briefing, found here.

Next story loading loading..