• by Tom Siebert , November 2, 2006

Even without a presidential race, the 2006 election season will generate the highest political media spending ever, according to media research firm PQ Media, which has also broken out the likely biggest winners among 41 public media companies--with some surprising results.

Total spending on political advertising and marketing communications is projected to reach $3.14 billion for full-year 2006--a 14.5% increase over the 2004 political advertising season, and the first time in a non-presidential election year that political media spending outpaced the previous presidential election.

While broadcast television will again command the largest share of political spending, it's still down almost 53% from 2004, while Internet advertising has grown approximately 700% since the last mid-term election in 2002.

The 60-plus-page report analyzes the impact of political ad spending on 41 public media companies that have holdings in broadcast television, newspapers, radio and out-of-home.

The report also ranks media markets based on the overall increase in political ad spending, as well as the likely increase in spending due to a volatile race in key markets.

For example, while Los Angeles, New York and San Francisco are unsurprisingly the top three markets for overall political spending, the far smaller markets of Cedar Rapids and Davenport and Ottumwa, Iowa are projected to have the biggest percentage increase in spending. See chart here.

The competitiveness of races in various markets correlates directly with the political advertising windfalls of media companies operating in those markets. In other words, although CBS--with its huge number of stations nationally--ranks tops in overall political ad spending, it falls to 17th in terms of percentage increase. Conversely, smaller broadcasting companies like Pegasus and Jefferson Pilot will see huge percentage increases because those companies' broadcast networks are located in hotly contested regions.

The study also examines newspaper, radio and out-of-home spending, where Gannett, Clear Channel and CBS are tops for overall spending; and The Washington Post, Cumulus and Next Media are tops for percentage increase.

Leo Kivijarv, Ph.D., VP of research of PQ Media, notes that his company has not taken a position or made any recommendations as to whether the stock of a given company will rise or fall based on its analysis.