• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, November 3, 2006

Why did ABC Sales President Mike Shaw take such a hard line at the upfront about charging for ratings generated by DVR viewing? Because later this season, 20% of viewing--or more--for top shows like "Lost" and "Grey's Anatomy" could come via the ad-skipping devices.

Nielsen's data is based on a 10,000 nationwide household sample, in which about 10% of viewers have DVRs. But Nielsen is continually trying to increase that figure to keep up with higher penetration estimates. The addition of DVR homes in the sample would likely boost DVR-aided viewing.

Take the Oct. 11 episode of "Lost": 16% of viewing by 18- to-49-year-olds did not occur Wednesdays at 9 p.m., but over the next week on the viewer's own time.

That 16% figure comes from comparing "Lost's" 6.3 "live" rating to its 7.3 in "live plus seven," the Nielsen data stream determining DVR-aided viewing over the seven days after broadcast.

"Grey's" also showed a powerful performance, via DVR viewing. On Oct. 12, "Grey's" posted an 8.7 live rating, which jumped to a 10.0 in live-plus seven--illustrating that 15% of viewing in this same key demo took place with DVRs. Both "Lost" and "Grey's" could reach 20% in DVR viewing in a matter of weeks. At present, "Lost" is growing at 2% a week. If that continues, mid-November could bring the watershed figure. In fact, it may already be there. Nielsen has only made "live plus seven" data available through Oct. 15.

The third leading ABC show, "Desperate Housewives," saw 10% of viewing for its latest measured episode done with DVRs.

Shaw began the upfront season looking to extract some payment for DVR ratings, but buyers balked--and negotiations based on "live" viewing only ensued. Before Shaw changed course on his preference for "live plus seven" dealing, however, he made a last attempt to persuade buyers to pay for "live plus same day" ratings--the Nielsen stream that measures viewing with DVRs on the same day of the broadcast.

Buyers again resisted on the grounds that any DVR viewing means commercial zapping. A scan of the "live plus same day" ratings for the three ABC blockbusters through Oct. 15 shows that up to 10% of viewing among 18- to-49-year-olds is taking place on the same day in the hours after broadcast. The Oct. 11 episode of "Lost" showed 10% consumption with DVRs on the same day.

The top shows of two other networks, CBS and Fox, are also experiencing significant levels of DVR consumption. The Oct. 12 episode of CBS' "CSI" showed that 14% of viewing by 18- to-49-year-olds took place over the seven days after broadcast.

The significant levels of DVR usage for "Grey's" and "CSI" could be attributable to the shows airing in the same time period, and some viewers opting to watch one live and record the other.

The premiere episode of "House" on Fox showed that 13% of viewing in the 18-to-49 demo occurred with DVRs. NBC's top show is experiencing slightly lower DVR consumption--with three episodes in a row showing 8% consumption via DVRs.

How many times viewers using DVRs are pressing the fast-forward button during commercials is unclear, although even network executives concede that the number is considerable. Many, however, argue that there is meaningful exposure for the marketing messages--even if viewed in FF.

The significant percentage of viewers using DVRs will no doubt increase both buyers' and sellers' call for Nielsen's coming commercial ratings to gauge ad-skipping behavior.

On the one hand, the high percentages represent lost revenue opportunities for networks. But viewed another way, they could offer some optimism: If fewer viewers are watching "live," buyer demands to reach them could increase, sending prices up. There's also the possibility that viewers who catch a show via a DVR and like it may opt to watch it in its broadcast window later.