• by Wayne Friedman , November 6, 2006

In a digital age, broadcast TV networks have done a neat job of protecting their businesses, say media-buying executives. For the third straight season, the broadcast networks' 18-49 gross ratings points are virtually the same. Yet for a decade or more, nets succumbed to yearly 4% to 6% declines in 18-49 viewer erosion.

"This is now three years; it's a huge story," says Andy Donchin, executive vice president of national broadcast for Carat USA. "Network TV is still working."

Compare early season numbers for the four networks now, versus a year ago. Regular season programming stands at a 3.7 rating among 18-49 viewers through the end of October, the same number as a year ago.

Despite many digital platforms stealing traditional media's limelight, advertisers are still relatively happy with TV networks, say analysts.

"We haven't had wholesale erosion in quite some time," says Shari Cohen, president and co-executive director of national broadcast for MindShare USA. "Networks are bringing people to the TV sets with some interesting programming."

Cohen notes, as have other execs, that ABC's "Ugly Betty," CBS' "Jericho," and NBC's "Heroes" have been the success stories. "People will find quality," she says. Even "E.R." has made a comeback. "Creatively, they really got off to a strong start." She also notes that the head-to-head Thursday battle between CBS' "CSI" and ABC's "Grey's Anatomy" has kept viewers interested in network programming.

Les Moonves, chief executive of CBS Corp., applauded network TV programming earlier in the week, saying the erosion of 18-49 viewers has virtually stopped. He said CBS' "Shark" and "Jericho" are definite keepers, and that "The Class" is on the fence.

The disappointments, says MindShare's Cohen, are NBC's "Kidnapped," Fox's "Vanished," and CBS' "Smith."

Still, it's early yet, says Donchin. Fox's Major League Baseball playoffs are over, and the November sweeps hasn't gotten into full swing. Plus, "American Idol" won't start again till January.

But executives shouldn't take things for granted, says Cohen. Networks still have a tough time getting viewers to sample new shows--especially during the third quarter, when there are fewer ratings points to use for promotion.

Some networks, like NBC, are looking to cut back on TV production costs in certain time periods--for example, 8 p.m.--which may mean more reality shows.

"I can understand its business decision," she says. "It's just counter to what its brand identity has been. It has been a premium price, upscale network. In an ideal world, we would like them to continue."