• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, November 6, 2006

With networks yanking weak shows off the air early in the season, could a whole network doing poorly be canceled? News Corp. is unlikely to pull the plug on 2-month-old MyNetworkTV. But if its series' ratings aired on another broadcaster, they'd be history.

In "live" ratings for MNTV's target 18-to-49 demo, telenovelas "Desire" and "Fashion House," which debuted Sept. 5, are averaging a paltry .3 and .4, respectively. Those ratings reflect their performance on weeknights, when new episodes air--although an MNTV spokesman says MNTV is trying to grow ratings like every other network.

MyNetworkTV's poor performance adds fuel to the fire that the telenovela format, where shows run nightly for 13 weeks and then reach a gripping finale and exit, won't succeed in the U.S. The format has been a strong performer in Latin America and elsewhere.

Overall, MNTV--which is averaging a .4 in the key demo--is attempting to give itself a lift with a "Bo vs. Morgan" ad campaign for "Fashion House," a month before the show is scheduled to end its planned 13-week run. The out-of-home effort--running in New York, Los Angeles and other major markets--makes reference to the characters' catfights, played by Bo Derek and Morgan Fairchild. Fairchild joined the show Oct. 9, providing the basis for the campaign.

MNTV's lackluster ratings look even more striking when compared with both the WB and UPN--the money-losing networks MNTV replaced this year on stations nationwide. Through Oct. 30 last season, the WB and UPN were both averaging a 1.5 in the 18-to-49 demo--275% higher than MNTV this season. (The defunct networks had slightly higher ratings in the 18-to-34 demo, too.) "I would have thought that they would have been happy with half (the ratings) of what UPN was doing," said Brad Adgate, senior vice president-corporate director of research at Horizon Media.

On a total viewers basis, both of the now-defunct networks were averaging more than 3 million viewers versus MNTV's 482,000 this year.

There are some signs that MNTV's affiliate base is frustrated with the poor ratings. The Sinclair Broadcast Group, which operates 17 MNTV affiliates and 13 in top-50 markets, said this week that ad sales for all stations were down 6.2% in September, compared to a year ago.

"We expect the MyNetworkTV stations to continue to trail our expectations, as ad buyers become comfortable with the new network's program genre," said David Amy, Sinclair's corporate financial officer, in a statement.

MNTV tried to lure affiliates by giving stations nine minutes an hour of ad time to sell, versus perhaps three minutes at other networks. When ratings are high, that could leave stations flush with money. But when struggling to grab viewers, it can make the three minutes on a higher-rated network look enticing.

"I don't know if at the ratings level they're at--if it works as a financial model," says Lyle Schwartz, senior vice president and director of research and marketplace analysis at Mediaedge:cia.

The network countered that production costs are low enough, compared to more established networks, to give it a solid financial basis.

MNTV isn't the only new network looking for momentum. The CW's 1.6 "live" rating in its target 18-to-34 demo this season is below what UPN was drawing at this point last year, and equal to the WB.

Although MNTV suggested that it might dabble in game shows and news magazines when it announced its formation in February, the network is forging ahead with telenovelas. "Watch Over Me," which received some publicity for its marketing link with Wal-Mart, and "Wicked Wicked Games," starring Tatum O'Neal, launch Dec. 6--the day after the two current shows conclude.

The network is also in production on two additional telenovelas--which if launched, would take it through next May's upfront, where it could face a skeptical group of advertisers. "If the ratings don't pick up," says Adgate, "I don't see how they would go out in the upfront and expect to do very well."