• by Erik Sass  @eriksass1, November 8, 2006

Big national and regional dailies may be taking circulation hits because of competition from the Internet, but local papers appear to be weathering the storm, judging by the latest newspaper FAS-FAX report from the Audit Bureau of Circulations. In fact, some small-town dailies are seeing increases in weekday circulation.

These aren't big jumps, averaging growth of only a few percent on modest circulation bases. A sampling of local papers around the country illustrates the trend: circulation for the Flagstaff Sun of Arizona climbed 1.3% to 11,319, the Southwest Times Record of Fort Smith, Arkansas grew 2% to 43,219; Southern California's Santa Maria Times grew 3.5% to 19,304; and Florida's St. Augustine Record grew 2.4% to 17,132.

Likewise, the DeKalb Chronicle of southern Illinois grew 5.4% to 9,698; Kentucky's Henderson Gleaner grew 2% to 11,545; and the Gallup Independent of New Mexico grew 4.5% to 15,402.

But not all small local papers shared in the good fortune.

Overall, the small-town dailies that did best are located in communities farther away from major urban areas. Small-town papers in metropolitan regions, like Connecticut and New Jersey, aren't faring nearly as well--usually experiencing single-digit percentage declines like their larger urban peers.

That may be due to increased penetration of broadband Internet service in metropolitan areas versus more remote, rural locales, according to Ken Doctor, a newspaper analyst with Outsell Inc. "If you look at broadband usage, it's lower in less populated areas. You don't have as many inroads by DSL or cable, and people are spending less time online in general," he says. "If they're spending less time online, then print has less competition from the Internet."

A survey of broadband penetration across the country confirms that huge swaths of mostly rural territory are bereft of broadband service. States like Kentucky, Wyoming, Vermont and Kansas have undertaken government-directed initiatives to extend broadband service to less developed areas, but most of these programs are just beginning.

At the same time, many towns with successful dailies are located in the Sun Belt, which has been enjoying a population boom due to migration from larger urban areas. Over the last five years, the population of Flagstaff, Arizona grew 8.5% to almost 60,000; St. Augustine, Florida grew 5.8% to more than 12,000; and DeKalb, Ill. saw its population grow 7.9% to over 42,000.

By contrast, local papers in economically depressed areas are suffering as the population dwindles, with young adults moving away for better opportunities elsewhere. There are no local paper success stories in upstate New York, for example--where the population grew just 1.1% during the 1990s--or North Dakota, which experienced a decline of about 4%.

Clearly, simply being local isn't enough to protect small-town newspapers. Their continued health requires an alignment of larger geographic factors and demographic trends.