• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, December 1, 2006

Everyone knew the final November retail sales results would be a mixed bag--jolly for drug and department stores and downright ugly for discounters like Wal-Mart. But it turns out the difference between the retail ka-chings and ka-ching-nots is starker than first predicted.

Overall, same-store sales growth slumped to 2.3 percent in November, among the 60 retailers reporting monthly results yesterday, said industry consulting firm Retail Forward. That represents a fall of 3.2 percent reported last month, and a bigger slide from the 3.7 percent composite reported last November.

Discount and dollar stores were the real losers: Customers just don't want to shop at discount stores the way they did last year. Retail Forward's ShopperScape survey found that only 55 percent of shoppers plan to buy there this holiday season compared with last year's 61 percent. The big exception is Target, which said its same store sales gained 5.9 percent.

"Last year, Wal-Mart generated so much buzz by offering cheap plasma TVs--the first time anyone had offered them for under $1,000," said Mark Rein, director of strategic consulting for Maritz Research, Chicago. "Now, everybody is selling them. You can get them at the Home Depot. Even Ace Hardware has amazing consumer electronics bargains."

Another problem for Wal-Mart, he said, is that consumers were unexpectedly hungry for clothes over the Thanksgiving weekend, "and because Wal-Mart continues to struggle with its apparel, everyone knows you're not going to go Wal-Mart for something to wear, either for yourself or for a gift."

Shoppers are also spurning specialty apparel stores and shoe stores, with 3 percent fewer shoppers planning to shop in these channels this year compared with last year, said Retail Forward.

Some notable exceptions: While November sales at The Limited gained just 1 percent over last year, its Victoria Secret stores scored a hefty 14 percent gain, while its Bath & Body Works stores were up 16 percent.

Rein, who spent time scoping out Minneapolis' Mall of America over the holiday weekend for trends, was also impressed by how well Macy's was doing. (Federated Department Stores, Macy's parent, reported a strong same-store sales gain of 8.5 percent.) "Along with Victoria's Secret, it was the busiest store in the mall," he said.

"In our surveys, 38 percent of Gen Y said they planned to shop at Macy's, which is significantly higher than either Gen X or the Boomers. Gen Y is fashion-conscious, buys on impulse, and has plenty of time to shop--you can see why it's working. The Macy's association with Project Runway really seems to be paying off," he said. "Last year, that same-store was dead."