• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, January 3, 2007

TV stations' lackluster efforts in buying new syndicated shows for next year reveal a few clues to current market conditions--among them, that marginal programs have a better chance of succeeding. 

TV stations and network executives have gone through this program-shuffling game for over two decades, canceling a supposedly failing show and replacing it with another--only to see that new show earn even worse ratings.

For syndication, this has been the rule for any first-run court show, talk show, magazine show, or game show.  Perhaps TV station executives aren't dazzled any longer by big names like Ellen DeGeneres, Martha Stewart or Megan Mullally.

As big as some of those names are, any recent efforts haven't made any of those shows must-haves. By the same token, if you already own one of those shows, perhaps you might keep them. So far no syndicator has said that it's stopped producing and scheduling any rookie show from this season--even the most poorly rated programs.

Perhaps it's a signal the market is changing that if stations need something to fill a certain spot, they might as well go for something a little less pricey than vying for high-profile talent.

And so, "Judge David Young," from Sony Pictures Entertainment, will take a run.  Twentieth Television will tackle the early-morning hours with "DaySide," hosted by Mike Jerrick and Juliet Huddy, from the Fox News Channel's show of the same name.

All this results in an increasingly familiar sentiment: "There is a thought among stations that 'the devil you know' is better than taking a chance on yet another show disrupting a lineup,"  Katz Communciation's Bill Carroll told Television Week.

Even the networks appear to be thinking like this. Some are already bemoaning the fact that NBC gave a full season order to the likes of "Friday Night Lights" and "Studio 60 on the Sunset Strip." "Studio 60" is averaging a mid-3.0 ratings among 18-49 viewers. "Lights" is coming in a bit lower.  Yet if NBC replaces them next season with shows that  do a low 2.0 ratings, who made the right call?

For the most part, people are watching more TV than ever before. Network TV has stopped the slide of ratings erosion over the last three years. Once again, collective 18-49 ratings points are about the same as a year ago. So maybe now is a good time-- not to change too much.

Take a page from CBS, which only replaced four shows this season and continues to reap steady results from procedural crime dramas that are great not only in their initial runs but also in  repeats.

It isn't about the TV devil that you know--it's the TV devil you need to know better