• by Larry Dobrow , September 10, 2003

Magazine publishers have put on a good game face as they begin 2004 ad rate negotiations with Madison Avenue, but their own industry data belies their tales of expanding demand for magazine ad pages. August ad pages fell 2.9% from August 2002, the third consecutive month of ad pages drops for the magazine industry, according to estimates released Wednesday by the Publishers Information Bureau.

But that hasn't stopped individual magazines from touting healthy gains. An article in The New York Times last week, for example, found publishers waxing euphoric about their ad-packed September issues - one fashion magazine honcho, for instance, said something to the extent that his issue for that month weighed nearly as much of one of the mag's cover models.

While September data will not be available from the PIB for another month, the August numbers, at least, reveal a second half of 2003 has not yet provided the boost that many publishers are waiting for.

The good news is that on a year-to-date basis, the industry is still on the growth track, even if it seems to be idling in the slow lane. Ad pages in the 12 categories monitored by PIB are up 1.1% against the first eight months of 2002, while revenue has surged to $10.9 billion, a gain of 9.6%. In August, ad pages were off 2.9% against the year-ago period, despite a 8.9% jump in ad revenue (to $1.17 billion).

If that refrain sounds familiar, well, that's because it is: in the last five months, the industry has seen sustained revenue increases (from 7.9% to 10.2% against the year-ago period) but hesitant ad-page growth (from a decline of 3.2% to a rise of 3.1%). And while month-by-month comparisons can be misleading - scheduling discrepancies, world events or any number of other issues can render moot the percentage increases/decreases - until more consistent ad-page growth is seen, it's misleading to suggest that the magazine business has emerged from its late 2001-2003 haze.

In the first eight months of 2003, six of the 12 PIB categories have grown their ad pages, with automotive (up 20.6%, to 14,628 pages), drugs/remedies (14.5%) and home furnishings/supplies (9.6%) leading the way. Not surprisingly, given the sluggish overall state of the financial and travel industries, financial/insurance/real estate (down 14.6%) and public transportation/hotels/resorts (down 9.1%) saw significant ad-page declines. The year-to-date ad revenue data look healthier - nine of the 12 PIB categories are in the black - but given the so-so ad-page numbers, that's mostly a function of publishers hiking rates to compensate for shrinking page counts.

The yearly trend held in August, with only five of the 12 sectors enjoying ad- page growth (automotive led the way, with a 14.7% increase over August 2002). Retail remained stable during what is traditionally a dead month for the category (0.2% growth), while the financial/insurance/real estate and public transportation/hotels/resorts categories were off at the beach (ad page drops of 27.3% and 20.9%, respectively).

As for individual titles, there were few surprises. Bolstered by a strong August (95 ad pages, $6.15 million in revenue), Lucky remains one of the year's biggest gainers (a 68.0% increase in ad pages, a 126.6% surge in ad revenue). Real Simple continues to make the magazine business look real... well, you know: the mag is up 58.3% in ad pages and 116.1% in revenue for the year. Wired continued its rebound, growing ad pages 36.5% and revenue 91.8% in its first eight 2003 issues. Impressive gains were also seen by Spanish- language editions of two heavyweights: in the first eight months of 2003, People En Espanol has surged 29.9% in ad pages and 37.6% in revenue over 2002 levels, while RD Selecciones is up 33.6% in pages and 59.0% in revenue.

More than a few magazines endured a slower-than-expected August, whether it was Martha Stewart Living (down 21% in pages for the usual reasons, but still passing the thump test at 96 pages) or W (down 23.1%; perhaps luxury-goods companies couldn't reach publishers from their summer retreats?) or Esquire (down 29.2%, to a mere 37.6 pages). Surprisingly, both of Dennis Publications' men's mags saw page declines versus the year-ago period, with Stuff down 0.3% and Maxim down 3.9%. Though FHM experienced tremendous growth (50.7% pages, 75.5% revenue), Maxim still came out ahead, running 92.3 pages to FHM's 73.3 and hauling in nearly three times as much ad revenue.