• by Paul Gough , January 16, 2004

In what would be some of the most aggressive U.S. advertising growth figures yet, ad tracking service TNS Media Intelligence/CMR Thursday estimated spending among the media it measures rose 6.8 percent in 2003, and would jump 7.8 percent this year on the strength of the Olympics and the elections.

Leading the pack: Spanish-language TV, the Internet, and spot TV, all of which TNS said would grow at a double-digit pace this year. Network TV, radio, and cable network TV will also see increases in the high single digits. Other media tracked by TNS--including consumer/Sunday magazines, newspapers, syndication, and outdoor--will experience a 5 percent to 6 percent boost.

Overall growth will mirror 2003 in the first half, with an expected year-over-year increase of 6.8 percent. But the ad marketplace will accelerate in the third quarter, when Olympic and election ads will really kick in, TNS said. Third-quarter growth should come in around 8.4 percent, with fourth-quarter ad spending up around 8.9 percent. Quarter and full-year data for 2003 won't be available until March. By the end of September, ad spending was up 7 percent compared to the same period in 2002.

"We're seeing strong growth across all media," said Steven J. Fredericks, president and chief executive officer of the TNS unit. But he said it's not just ad spending surrounding the Olympics and the presidential elections, which are widely credited with boosts during quadrennial election years. Fredericks pointed to data from the overall economy. "Our view is that there's a lot more confidence in the recovery," Fredericks said Thursday afternoon. "The economy is coming back strong." He cited gross domestic product (GDP) figures that were unexpectedly strong in the third quarter, which in turn, boosted demand for advertising in the major media. While 2004 GDP growth isn't expected to be as high, many economists say it's still going to be substantial.

Internet advertising is pegged at a 12.1 percent growth rate for 2004.

"The notion of the bust of the Internet is over," Fredericks said. "That's old news. I think it really has to do with the fact that we're seeing a lot of advertising on the Internet by the Fortune 500 companies." He said spot TV was down year-to-year in 2003 but the benefit from Olympic and political advertising will help it achieve a 10.8 percent increase. Radio, which will also feel the effects of political advertising, is expected to rise 9.5 percent.

Growth Estimates For 2004 By Medium

Spanish-Language TV   +15.7%  
Internet              +12.1%   
Spot TV               +10.8%  
Network TV             +9.6%  
Radio                  +9.5%  
Cable Network TV
+8.3%  
Consumer Magazines*    +5.7%  
Newspapers             +5.5%              
Syndication            +5.4%  
Outdoor                +5.0%  

Source: TNS Media Intelligence/CMR. *Includes Sunday magazines.