• by Paul Gough , January 9, 2004

Add another voice to the chorus that says radio is coming back from its dip in the fall. In the first earnings report for a radio station group for the last quarter of 2003 and among the first to look forward into 2004, Emmis Communications Corp. reported a 15 percent increase in radio revenues for the quarter ended Dec. 31 to $75 million compared to the same period in 2002. It's Emmis' fiscal third quarter.

While Emmis isn't the largest station group in numbers of stations owned - that goes hands down to Clear Channel Communications in San Antonio, Texas - it owns the top-rated radio stations in Los Angeles and New York City, and operates 16 other FM and three AM stations in Chicago, St. Louis, Phoenix, Indianapolis and Terre Haute, Ind. Overall revenues, which include television stations and a publishing unit, rose 4.6 percent to $155.5 million.

Along with the quarterly revenues, Emmis also estimated it would earn $60 million in domestic radio revenues for the three-month period that ends March 31. If correct, the revenues would represent a 4 percent to 6 percent increase over the same period in 2003, which had started well but chilled quickly because of fears leading up to the war in Iraq. By the same token, Emmis - along with the rest of the radio industry - didn't have the best October and November but finished up the year pretty well.

"There's no doubt that things are looking up," said Jeff Smulyan, president and chief executive officer of Indianapolis-based Emmis. He said that December's radio revenues were better than November's, January's is looking better than December's and February's pacings are tracking better than January's. But Smulyan acknowledged that Emmis was a little more cautious than some peers in the radio industry.

There's still concern about advertisers placing spots closer to air time, a problem that has plagued radio stations since the recession began. But Emmis executives said they were pleased by the stations' inventory management and Rick Cummings, president of the radio division, said that there are mixed messages about whether the industry is able to hold the line and even increase rates.

"I think it goes market by market, company by company," Cummings said. "We certainly see signs that companies are out there being more aggressive about driving rates. We certainly see signs that they are putting out early indications to buyers that pacing is very, very strong."

At the same time, Smulyan and Cummings were careful to point out that it was too early to say the entire year would be terrific. January is one month, Smulyan said, and you never know what the marketplace is going to be until you're into it.

"I don't want to naysay, because things look good," he said. "I certainly hope our markets will be up 6 or 7 percent."