• by Karl Greenberg , October 2, 2007

Automakers will roll out their September sales numbers on Wednesday, and it's going to be a mixed bag, though the bag will be small, with most automakers--from Toyota to Ford--seeing softer sales versus the month last year. The housing market and gasoline prices are keeping a lid on the market, but several automakers are benefiting from new vehicles.

Jesse Toprak, chief industry analyst with Edmunds.com, says Ford Motor is likely to post double-digit declines, while General Motors may surprise again, as it did in August.

The consultancy predicts the industry will see an overall 0.7% decline in sales last month versus the month in 2006, with only Honda, Nissan and GM reporting higher sales versus the month last year. Edmunds predicts Honda will see a 16.3% improvement; GM, a 0.8% boost, and Nissan, a 2.3% increase in sales volume.

"If you look at the number of units we expect to be sold, we are looking at around 1.3 million, which isn't far from the historical average," says Toprak. "It's not a great month, but average; yes, we have more weakness than usual due to the obvious trends, but not a dramatic decline."

He says Ford will post double-digit declines--the consultancy predicting Ford's September sales will show a 14.4% drop, while Chrysler will post a 6.7% sales decline for the month--but that the declines will reflect deliberate production cuts, and fewer deliveries to rental fleets, as slower retail sales.

And he predicts the biggest gainer will be Honda, getting mileage from its just-launched Accord sedan. "That car is obviously a volume generator, so when we have new redesign of vehicle like that, they benefit."

By contrast, Toyota may see flat or negative numbers, because last September was such a stellar month for the Torrance, Calif.-based U.S. sales arm of the company.

By contrast, Ford posted double-digit declines last year. Says Toprak: "Probably the most stable measure of performance is market share, because even though the entire pot is smaller, the share is giving you a better indicator of competitive pressure."

The consultancy predicts that the combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors domestic nameplates will have been 51.8% last month--down from 54.6% in September 2006 and down slightly from 52.1% in August 2007.

Toprak predicts that, despite declines in sales that Toyota may well post for September, the company may show market-share gains versus last year, from share losses from domestic automakers.

GM has been doing better than expected, especially versus last year, in part because they have delivered products to the U.S. market--from full-sized pickup trucks to the bevy of new crossovers bearing the Saturn, GMC and Buick nameplates--that consumers are flocking to.

Most recently, the Buick Enclave, Saturn Outlook and GMC Acadia platform siblings are doing remarkably well, even in Southern California, where Buick is not a usual ride, especially among younger buyers. "Buick is attracting non-traditional Buick buyers," he says.

Meanwhile, Toyota's redesigned Tundra pickup is on track to reach the company's sales target of 200,000 units this year.

"To be frank, we didn't think they would," says Toprak, who notes that Toyota did something unusual--for Toyota. It launched with very aggressive incentives right out of the gate, with somewhere around $3,000 per units, as well as 0% financing a few months after production. "It shows Toyota's eagerness to get into the large-truck market."