• by Frank Maggio , October 4, 2007

What would you think about an online "fantasy" game that offered $100,000 cash to the person who could best predict which shows the Nielsen households would watch over a nine-month period? Would you have a problem with it, if Nielsen household members -- or even Nielsen employees -- could play and win?

What if the rules of this game provided an incentive for Nielsen members who are enrolled in the game to watch broadcast TV shows instead of cable TV shows? And what if, in order to get really good at the game, Nielsen members would peruse and learn about dozens of network-only TV shows, many of which they would not have otherwise known about, while not being exposed to a single cable TV show?

Well, folks, such a game exists. It's called TVBigShot, and the game is sponsored by NBC Universal and the Bravo Company. The motto at the top of the Web site? "Spare the Snark, Spoil the Networks." Over 16,300 people have already subscribed, and the game is designed to attract people who are passionate about TV and TV ratings. I think this game will draw Nielsen members like moths to a cathode ray tube.

Nielsen household members who find out about this game will be attracted to it, and the rules, as written, do not preclude them from entering or winning. Let's face it, a Nielsen household can already earn several hundred dollars a year by allowing Nielsen to snoop on their "totally normal and representative" viewing behavior. But on TVBigShot.com, they can earn $100,000 cash -- IF they can essentially "guess" what shows Nielsen households will be watching next week. Nielsen households including... themselves.

You see, a Nielsen member playing this game already has a small advantage. Unlike us plebes, Nielsen household members can pick the shows that they watch themselves, knowing that their actual viewing will be counted in their game point totals -- while also impacting the spend of around $70 billion a year in TV advertising. What a rush!

But more troublesome, the structure of the game requires players to choose only from the five broadcast networks. Smart Nielsen household members trying to win TVBigShot would be "wasting points" by watching cable TV networks, especially when they could be watching a broadcast TV network that they have already selected in their Fantasy lineup. In fact, if they are really passionate about winning the game, they would ONLY watch the network TV shows they have "purchased" in the game, thereby insuring no other shows get credit for their viewing behavior. This could severely alter their viewing behavior -- and negatively impact cable TV ratings.

So, of the 16,300+ people enrolled in the game so far, how many are Nielsen household members, and why should you care?

First, let's agree, for example, that over a nine-month period, the average Nielsen household affects the spending of about $3 million in advertising. And let's assume for the purposes of this analysis, that in order to win this game, the Nielsen member only modifies 25% of his viewing behavior. And lastly, let's estimate that only 2% of the registered players in the game are Nielsen household members.

If this is true, this game could alter ratings enough to redirect nearly a quarter BILLION in ad dollars, much of it away from cable, and towards network TV.

What should be done about it? Well, first of all, the game's rules need to immediately preclude Nielsen households from playing. Of course, notifying them of a game they can't play will only draw attention to the game, and might in and of itself affect their behavior. And the judges selecting a winner will need to ask each to prove they are not a Nielsen household, which is also problematic.

Secondly, I would like to know whether or not NBC Universal obtained permission from Nielsen to use their ratings as the currency for this game.

And lastly, if permission WAS granted, I would like to know how (and why) Nielsen would allow this game to be deployed, with the potential it has to hurt cable networks and their ratings.

But then again, it wouldn't be the first time that cable TV ratings have suffered because of rules over which MSOs and cable nets have little or no control, now, would it?