• by Mitch Oscar , Op-Ed Contributor, November 6, 2007

Last week I attended a meeting with Shari Anne Brill (Carat senior vice president, research) hosted by Anne Drake, (vice president, TNS Media Research). The purpose of the gathering was to discuss TNS's InfoSys media applications and its second-by-second TV commercial data analytical capabilities in cable systems operator Charter's L.A. market footprint (300,000). Program tune away statistics, pod positioning audience flow data, directional viewing behavior models was thought to be the content of a sumptuous feast.

But for those of us in the industry who know Shari Anne, the topic quickly channeled to her most pressing issue: the impending writers' strike. She needed to know how many scripted programs the networks had in the can. Anne and I were at a loss. She quickly brought up stats from the last writers' strike (1988). Different time, she fretted. Although she couldn't recall the source she said that multiple articles had indicated that TV lost 10% of its viewership during the walk-out and was not sure how many of those itinerants managed to find their way back to the living room. Now, the situation is far graver, given the plethora of alternatives. "Maybe people will start reading," she speculated. "Nah," she reconsidered upon a second's reflection.

I suggested that she write an article for MediaPost's TV Board about the topic. Make MediaPost editor Joe Mandese proud. Unfortunately.... So I took it upon myself to enlist the support of a couple of researchers (erinMedia's Frank Foster, Media Control GFK's Amy Heller, Rentrak's Ken Papagan, and TNS's George Shababb) as well as Shari Anne to speculate on the possible viewing consequences of a prolonged action:

Fewer scripted, popular, original shows air, resulting in diminished DVR usage.

Original scripted programs that are sequentially organized, such as Fox's "24" and ABC's "Lost," lose momentum during strike hiatus and forever suffer ennui as viewers lose interest and others never re-sample.

The incubation of rookie programs is interrupted, disrupting the cultivation of audiences and withering upon the return to regularly scheduled original episodes.

Depending upon the length of the strike, next year's pilot season could be significantly impacted, thereby injuring the scheduling of the 2008-09 broadcast season. Note: in 1988 the strike ignited in the spring and thereby took place after the new season plans/strategies were formulated.

C3 ratings will be impacted due to the resurgence of channel surfing, creating a greater gulf between program and commercial ratings -- particularly in DVR households. Note: with little or no historical data relating to commercial viewing, what happens to this year's currency (C3 data) during the writer's strike?

Topical programming transmogrifies into non-topical, and thereby the printed word (Web and newspaper) has more resonance with the community.

The interactive program guide gains more traction. as viewers are desperately searching for programs to view.

Reality programming gets sillier and repeats more redundant as TV viewers seek alternative arenas for their video and entertainment fix.

Program ratings diminish; broadcast and cable networks have difficulty meeting guarantees; marketplace tightens; broadcast and cable networks run out of avails to assuage angry advertisers and their agencies; networks give back cash: an anathema.

Do all upfront estimates have to be thrown out of the window? How will ad agencies handle estimating fluid program schedules? Will advertisers and their agencies be forced to re-negotiate their upfront deals?

Will Nielsen panel members feel it is their "duty" to watch television. even though there may be little that is compelling on the air? In order to safeguard the integrity of their panels, will Nielsen have to offer greater incentives to maintain viewership? Will Nielsen enlist the aid of the broadcast and cable networks to incentivize their panelists? Will consumers see more advertisements blazoned with the following headline: "IF YOU ARE A NIELSEN HOUSEHOLD PLEASE CONTACT US"?

If Nielsen panelists rebel, will it necessitate the media community's support of research entities that monitor/report click stream data?