• Reuters, Monday, December 3, 2007 11:45 AM

Goldman Sachs' Anthony Noto issued bad news for the media sector in a recent analyst report, saying that a U.S. recession-a 50/50 chance, he says, would lead to a downturn in advertising by as much as 10 percent. Of course, that doesn't include Web advertising, which many expect to rise more than 20 percent next year--but it may include more experimental forms of new media advertising, such as cell phones and perhaps, Web 2.0 sites like YouTube and Facebook.

"Clearly, the fringe areas would be much more impacted [by a recession]... the newer areas that have less of a track record in terms of their ability to have a direct marketing impact," Rino Scanzoni, an executive at WPP Group media-buyer GroupM, said. For example, online video--considered a risky investment for advertisers due to content and copyright concerns--attracts .01 percent of the audience generated by traditional television.

Nevertheless, Peter Levinsohn, CEO of Fox Interactive Media, owner of the social network MySpace, isn't worried. In a recession, "advertisers tend to move more toward accountability," he explains. "We still feel pretty good about our prospects."

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