• MarketingCharts.com, Tuesday, March 4, 2008 11 AM

According to a new study from Screen Digest, the global TV advertising market is apt to be sluggish through 2009, but could see some improvement, particularly online, from 2010 to 2012, as audiences continue to fragment and the Web gets an ever-bigger share of the marketing budget pie. Among the findings are that 2008 will be a difficult year for TV advertising, with total spend growing at a lower rate than the economy, or 1.9% in Europe and 1.5% in the U.S.

Still, TV ad revenues will get a boost this year from the Olympics, the European football championship and the U.S. elections. Those events will help stave off outright recession in TV ad revenues by countering the impact of a slowing economy -- but the effect will be temporary. The study finds that by 2009, a softer advertising market will prevail, with cuts in marketing budgets -- especially in the U.S.

"Advertising spending tends to amplify economic cycles -- and in some instances it actually anticipates downturns," says Vincent Létang, Screen Digest senior analyst and the report's author. He sees ad revenues growing below that of average GDP, or annual rates of 3.6% in Europe and 3.7% in the U.S. until 2011-2012, when things pick up again. "Whilst the overall picture for ad revenues is flat or in decline, two areas will enjoy growth -- online and digital TV.

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