Universal McCann’s Robert Coen, one of the more respected forecasters of worldwide ad spending, revised his 2002 projection downward recently, saying that the recovery is "coming along slower than we expected" since last December, when he made his first detailed projection for this year. Steve McClellan of Broadcasting & Cable summarized his remarks.
Coen's total U.S. ad-spending projection now stands at +2.1 percent (to $236.2 billion) for 2002 over 2001. In December, he predicted total growth of 2.4 percent (to $239.3 billion). One major negative is his outlook for cable TV, which he now believes will show a decline of 3.5 percent in ad sales this year to $11.5 billion. Six months ago, he thought cable would grow 5.5 percent to $12 billion. And he reduced his forecast for local newspapers by $1 billion, which he now said will be up just 1 percent to $38 billion.
According to Coen, the four major networks will show combined growth of 7 percent to $15.3 billion, and national spot TV will increase 7.5 percent this year to $9.9 billion, driven in large measure by what could be $1 billion in political advertising. Local TV will also be up, growing 5 percent (instead of the earlier projected 4 percent) to $12.9 billion.
He also projected a much healthier increase for radio, especially on the national side, where he had earlier projected a 1 percent decline for this year. Now, he believes national radio will be up 6 percent to $3.6 billion, while local radio will be up 3.5 percent to $14.7 billion.
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