• by Larry Dobrow , June 10, 2003

With yesterday's release of the Publishing Information Bureau's May and year-to-date audited circulation data, the magazine industry received another morsel of good news, further spurring hopes that the industry is continuing its tentative rebound from the dark days of the last 30 months.

According to PIB, total advertising revenue from January to May 2003 reached $7.01 billion, a jump of 10.2 percent from the year-ago period. But while the total number of ad pages also increased, the percentage gain was considerably less - 2.9 percent, to 90,338 pages. The May data mirrored the year-to-date trends: ad revenue surged to $1.69 billion, an 11.2 percent increase over May 2002, and pages were up 2.3 percent to 20,807.

"Will anybody be saying 'eureka!'?" Ellen Oppenheim, executive vice president and chief marketing officer of Magazine Publishers of America, asks rhetorically. "Probably not. But as we get further away from sobering events, things seem to be looking up."

Asked if she was ready to upgrade her mid-May outlook for the magazine business from "cautiously optimistic" to "optimistic," Oppenheim paused before answering. "I think that real optimism is difficult in a time as uncertain as this," she explains. "Magazines are bought on a month-by-month basis, and the fragile nature of our times causes everyone to operate more cautiously than in the past."

That cautious assessment didn't stop her, however, from trumpeting the gains in a handful of big-ticket advertising categories. "The gains in automotive are heartening because it's the largest category for magazines," she notes. "What we're seeing in home furnishings is also encouraging, but there's always a bump around this time of the year -spring cleaning, et cetera. Apparel and accessories also showed some interesting sub-segment increases - bridal, watches, upscale apparel and jeans were all up."

Still, on a category-by-category basis, the news was decidedly mixed. Of the 12 ad sectors tracked by PIB, seven grew their ad revenues over May 2002 levels; only six increased their count of ad pages. Strength was seen in apparel/accessories (up 29.9 percent in ad revenues to $118.3 million, up 17.3 percent in ad pages to 1,882.5), home furnishings/supplies (29.8%/$161.7 million, 20.4%/1,820.2) and automotive (27.1%, $201.5 million, 20.9%, 2,160.4). Drugs/remedies, toiletries/cosmetics, and even technology all saw gains in both ad revenue and pages during May.

Not surprisingly, given the economy's particular pockets of weakness, the May losers in both revenue and pages were public transportation/hotels/resorts (down 11 percent in revenue and 22 percent in pages), financial/insurance/real estate, media/advertising, retail and direct response. "Those are obviously the categories that have felt the brunt of the economic softness," Oppenheim affirms. "Travel was starting to show a bit of a rebound, and then [SARS] took its toll."

As for the year-to-date breakdowns, eight of the PIB categories jumped in ad revenue and six grew in ad pages over January-May 2002. Automotive, drugs/remedies, and home furnishings/supplies all enjoyed double-digit percentage gains in revenue and pages, while financial/insurance/real estate, direct response and technology remain down in both during 2003. "No real surprises there," Oppenheim says.

Looking ahead, Oppenheim remains - you guessed it - cautiously optimistic. "It's wrong to look at individual months and say 'this a trend makes,'" she quips. "Clearly companies understand the role advertising plays in building their business, but when there are factors out of their control - like the economy or what's going on in the world - there's no guarantee that people are going to be receptive to their message. That's not just for magazines; that's for any medium."

While the MPA does not comment on individual titles, the rise and fall of a given ad category inevitably impacts those publications which emphasize that category. That said, on the individual-magazine front, the biggest year-to-date ad page percentage gains were posted by Blender (up 149 percent to 244.9 pages), Elle Girl (93%, 177), Guideposts (84%, 127), Lucky (78%, 553) and Real Simple (70%, 423). The titles that enjoyed the biggest ad page percentage gains over last May were Guideposts (up 134.5 percent to 34 pages), Remedy (104%, 71), Lucky (95%, 135), Elle Girl (84.3%, 73.7), and The Saturday Evening Post (70%, 49).