• GigaOm, Thursday, June 19, 2008 11:16 AM

GigaOm's James Wagner Au says the short-lived era of the video game blockbuster may have come to an end. Despite breaking all kinds of sales records in its first week of existence, Take Two Interactive's Grand Theft Auto IV has failed to significantly boost sales of the PS3 and Xbox 360. As such, the title has sold just over 9 million copies since its late April release, according to VGChartz, and will be lucky to move 12-14 million total copies. By comparison, its predecessor "GTA: San Andreas" sold 21.5 million copies.

San Andreas sold more copies because it had a much wider audience base on the PS2 and Xbox than GTA IV has on the PS3 and Xbox 360. Au says that that GTA IV's failure to boost system sales means a couple of things: one, demand for hardcore console gaming has weakened significantly as gamers opt for the more family-oriented, casual gaming experience offered by Nintendo's Wii. "If Grand Theft Auto can't move more (PS3s and Xbox 360s), nothing can," he says. Two, if the market for next-gen consoles has been tapped out, then the market for blockbuster next gen titles has also been exhausted. GTA IV cost more than $100 million to make. If only 13-14 million titles are sold, do you think Take Two would be willing to spend that kind of money on the next iteration in the series? Not likely.

As Au says, "I think GTA IV is next-gen's siren song, and a sign of drastic changes to come." In other words, the future belongs to mass market, casual games. Not hardcore, expensive uber sequels.

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