• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, August 5, 2008

In the next several months, starting in a few days with the Summer Olympics, and extending until November and December, local TV stations will be entering a crucial advertising sales period -- one that will also reveal a hazy picture of what 2009 might look like.

In the midst of a supposedly big election and Summer Olympics year, local TV advertising sales should be trending toward double-digit percentage levels for overall ad dollars. But they are not

When all is said and done, TV stations will be lucky to see a 9% overall improvement in advertising dollars. While record amounts of political advertising dollars are being spent, other local TV ad categories such as automotive ads are suffering.

Not only that -- but some of local TV dollars seem to be moving to national TV ventures. For example, Barack Obama's campaign placed national TV ad dollars during NBC's Beijing Olympics.

There is still a long way to go. We haven't even got past the major parties' national conventions later this month. No doubt, political media strategists will once again zero in on targeted states where their respective candidates are lacking, boosting ad spending respectively.

But local TV could still be in trouble. Earnings report after earnings report talk of a slowdown in local TV sales -- especially over the last two quarters. News Corp.'s Rupert Murdoch also worries about his local media advertising businesses.

Then there is all those depressing financial results coming from the likes of General Motors, Ford Motor, and even Toyota Motor Sales. Local TV sales executives still cling to the old yarn that in depressed times, marketers need to spend more to push sales.

Stations will point to their own digital efforts, which are growing -- but they are a drop in the bucket to what stations grab via traditional TV airwaves.

That said, local TV stations aren't alone. What will become of national TV news outlets after this big presidential year? With even more people getting their news from digital platforms -- many of which aren't related to foxnews.com, cnn.com, and msbnc.com -- where will those revenue gains be coming from in future years?

Local stations are asking the same questions -- and then some. If things are supposedly weak now for stations, in a so-called "even" year of big political and Olympic money, what happens next year ?