Commentary

''A Man and a Woman'' Appears to be a Bush Strength

"A Man and a Woman" Appears to be a Bush Strength

comScore Networks recently released the results of a study examining the factors influencing the voting plans of American women in the upcoming presidential election. The study, which examined factors ranging from age, income and motherhood to women's concerns about terrorism and the economy, revealed that marital status is among the most important indicators of voting intention.

Linda Abraham, executive vice president of comScore Networks, said "The expected impact of younger women and particularly that of the "security mom" segment on the outcome of the election has been the focus of a great deal of attention. This study indicates far more complex underlying dynamics across female voter groups. In a race as tight as this one, the candidate that understands and addresses these dynamics might well come out ahead."

The central assumption behind the concept of the "security mom" segment is that women with children are more likely to be concerned about terrorism and therefore favor President Bush because of his aggressive stance on the issue. comScore's study found that while mothers are indeed likely to vote for President Bush, a woman's marital status alone is at least as much of an indicator of voting intention. Specifically, 51 percent of married women without children say they will vote for George Bush, while 56 percent of married women with children say they will vote for the President - a difference of only 5 percentage points. In sharp contrast, only 33 percent of unmarried women responded that they would vote for Bush.

Voting Plans by Marital Status and Motherhood (Registered female voters)

 Married w/ KidsMarried w/o KidsNever Married
Bush and Cheney56%51%33%
Kerry and Edwards32%35%53%
Nader and Camejo1%1%0%
None of these2%2%2%
Don't know/not sure9%10%11%

Source: comScoreQ2 September 24-29, 2004

comScore found that the differences between married and unmarried women persist across age and income groups.

Voting Plans by Marital Status, Age and Income

AGE
MarriedNever Married
 Age 18-34Age 35-54Age 18-34Age 35-54
Bush and Cheney 52%58%30%39%
Kerry and Edwards37%30%56%46%
Nader and Camejo 1%1%0%0%
None of these2%2%3%1%
Don't know/not sure8%10%11%13%
INCOME
MarriedNever Married
<$50k>/= $50k<$50k>/= $50k
Bush and Cheney53%57%32%29%
Kerry and Edwards32%36%55%59%
Nader and Camejo2%0%0% 1%
None of these 2%1%1%4%
Don't know/not sure10%6% 12%7%

While comScore found that married mothers do put a greater emphasis on terrorism, the economy is an extremely important issue with all segments of women voters. This is especially true of married women without children, who are significantly more likely to respond that the economy is more important than terrorism.

To better understand how female voters' lifestyles and interests differ between Bush and Kerry supporters, comScore examined the lifestyle of each group as indicated by their online behavior patterns

Online Content Preferences Among Female Registered Voters
% More or Less Likely to Visit Site

CategoryBush SupportersKerry Supporters
Financial Information/Advice-19%+45%
Community-Family+76%+18%
Community-Teens+50% -78%
Entertainment-Kids+39% -63%
Entertainment-Movies -7%+65%
Entertainment-News-42%+54%
Health-Information -22% +89%
News/Information-General News-16% +20%
News/Information-Politics+15%+5%
Retail-Books-1%+112%
Sports+75%-8%
Travel+14%+95%

Source: comScoreQ2 September 24-29, 2004

For more information, please visit www.comscore.com

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