• by Wayne Friedman , Staff Writer, October 16, 2008

Consider the dire predictions from Merrill Lynch media analyst Jessica Reif Cohen: There's a recession knocking on the door that will put media company stocks behind the eight ball for the next year and a half.

That puts us into March 2010. Concerning the ad marketplace, it is worse. Cohen says to expect the advertising marketplace, including the TV advertising marketplace, to start recovering three to six months after that. 

Worried about the 2009 upfront market next June?  Forget that. Worry more about a repeat crumbling performance in the 2010 upfront market. Two straight soft upfront markets in a row -- rather unheard of in recent times -- will make people sit up and take notice.

A few big-name media companies that have already issued warnings about their local TV stations are now getting around to those glum predictions concerning their national TV platforms. Sister companies Viacom and CBS have already done this for their respective national TV networks. More are to come.

It's getting toward the end of the year, the time when TV advertising prognosticators typically ramp up their upfront crystal balls. But in this marketplace, what can you say? Two days after a 900-plus point gain on the Dow Jones Industrials -- perhaps a positive sign -- we fall right back with a 700-plus point loss, based on poor upcoming retail sales and still lower car consumer purchases.

From all the scary signs, one would expect at least 10% reductions in cost per thousand viewer TV prices, as well as overall volume, stuff that will easily slap the market around come next June's upfront fiesta. And this won't affect just broadcasters, but those bigger cable networks, syndication TV programmers, and, yes, new digital video media platforms as well.  

Surely, the upfront marketplace has baffled us before. It was a strong affair, when all economic signs pointed in the other direction; at another time, looking strong only to perform at a weak level.  

The upfront season is already upon us. But it will go on for twice as long as we thought .