eMarketer's sober news for network and cable TV: You're not booking $70 billion a year in ad revenue any more. In 2009, the number will be about $66.9 billion, or about 4.2% less than in
2008. The lost dollars are going back into the pockets of marketers and to cheaper, more-accountable media.
But online video is one place those dollars are not shifting in
comparable scale. The online-video market will gain 45%, or a mere $263 million, to reach $850 million in 2009, per eMarketer. That will likely make a big difference for Hulu, Veoh and maybe even
YouTube. But it's a small fraction of the $2.8 billion that TV lost in the couch cushions.
There are fewer ads available in online video, and audiences are still small, so ad rates are still higher than TV. So for now at least, video on the Web is not an advertising threat that TV has to worry about.