• by Erik Sass  @eriksass1, June 16, 2010

Consumer magazines' print ad revenues will continue to drop in 2010-2012, according to the latest forecast from PricewaterhouseCoopers.

By PwC's measurements, total consumer magazine ad revenues fell 21% in 2009 and are set for another 7% decline in 2010. Looking further into the future, PwC sees a 3.5% drop in 2011 and a 1.1% drop in 2012.

The following years will bring anemic growth at best, with a less than 1% increase in 2013. In 2014, PwC projects total magazine ad revenues of $9.1 billion, down fully 34% from $13.8 billion in 2007 -- the last year of positive revenue growth.

Remarkably, PwC's prediction is actually relatively optimistic. A separate forecast from Magna has consumer magazines continuing to suffer revenue declines into the foreseeable future, with drops of 6.2% in 2010, 2.2% in 2011, 2.1% in 2012, 1.9% in 2013, 1.5% in 2014, and 3.8% in 2015 -- for a total loss of 42% over the decade, from $22.4 billion in 2006 to $13 billion in 2015.

The trend is especially ominous in light of historical data showing that magazine growth rates were, until recently, usually more buoyant than the economy in general. From 1970-1999, the percent growth rate in magazine ad pages matched or exceeded GDP percent growth rates in 19 out of 30 years, or 63% of the time. (These were also, for the most part, years without a strong magazine Internet presence.)

But from 2000-2009, they only beat GDP in one year -- 2004 -- equaling just 10% of the time.

Magazines aren't alone in suffering declines. Magna has total U.S. newspaper ad revenue sliding 9.2% in 2010, 4.2% in 2011, 4.1% in 2012, 4% in 2013, 3.5% in 2014 and 5.8% in 2015. In dollar terms, Magna has total newspaper ad revenues plummeting from $47.4 billion in 2005 to $18.8 billion in 2015 -- a 60% drop in 10 years.

From 1970-1989, newspaper ad revenues matched, exceeded or came within two percentage points of the overall growth rate in ad spending in 15 out of 20 years, 75% of the time. But the dynamic began to change over the last two decades.

From 1990-1999, newspapers only managed to do this in four out of 10 years (40% of the time). From 2000-2009 it happened only twice, in 2003 and 2005 (20%).