• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, February 15, 2024

"In the future, how will marketers choose to plan media?," Madison and Wall publisher Brian Wieser asks in a section outlining new media-planning "paradigms" that are part of a new report commissioned by CIMM (Coalition for Innovative Media Measurement).

Great question. If you're as inquisitive about that as I am, go ahead and read the entire report, "The Future of Media, Advertising, Measurement and Currency: A Perspective," but I'm using today's column to give you the highlights, because I know planners, buyers and advertisers are kind of busy paradigming these days.

The report does touch on broader changes taking place in the underlying media supply chain, as well as how the industry is measuring it -- and mining new currencies to buy and sell ads within it -- and Wieser notes his perspective piece is the first in a series of papers the Advertising Research Foundation's CIMM unit plans to publish.

Meanwhile, here are Wieser's new media-planning paradigms:

• Optimizing the Existing Medium: Some marketers will maintain a perspective that any content viewed on a television screen, whether described as linear or connected, counts as “television,” while everything else should fall outside this category. There may be variations, such as whether YouTube viewed on a television should qualify as “TV” or if the distinction lies in professionally produced content. Nonetheless, the underlying assumption is that consumers are primarily in a “lean-back” mode when watching content on a large screen TV. Brands can leverage the brand equity of the content they advertise alongside, thus enhancing the perceived quality of their brands. As consumption levels for this definition of TV probably decrease over time – there will simply be less “ambient” or background viewing in a world where many more consumers primarily access on-demand streaming services – and the share of ad-free viewing goes up, campaign reach potential becomes increasingly challenged with every passing year.

• Optimizing a Broader Definition of Video: As traditional TV, including connected TV, faces limitations in reaching audiences whether defined in terms of age and gender or on other alternative metrics, increasing numbers of marketers may choose to broaden their definition of “TV” to include platforms like YouTube and/or TikTok, regardless of whether that content is viewed on a TV screen. In this scenario, marketers might view traditional TV as “network prime time,” streaming video as “cable,” YouTube as syndication, and TikTok as daytime TV. In the 2000s, many marketers would plan a single TV budget and segment it by dayparts or other factors; in the future, many marketers may adopt a similar approach for all platforms with significant ad-supported video content. Some already do this, but it has yet to become the industry norm.

• Optimizing Across Media Companies’ Cross-Platform Offerings: While the concept of a common user ID has existed in digital media for years, traditional TV network owners have only recently begun implementing this idea. As marketers increasingly manage their line items with media owners, starting with tech giants like Alphabet, Meta, and Amazon, they may move away from traditional “medium” distinctions in their budget-setting processes. As the relative effectiveness and importance of traditional television diminishes, these media incumbents may become more aggressive in adding digital inventory as part of their packages, whether video or not, to a pool of cross-media inventory they offer to marketers. Smaller digital properties and second-tier social networks may also seek to collaborate with network owners in such initiatives to enhance their standing in the industry. In essence, the future of trading, measurement, and currencies will be shaped by how these scenarios unfold, and the industry will likely see a combination of these dynamics in the coming years.

Wieser goes on to discuss some important media-buying implications, including the new currencies themselves, but I was struck by one observation in particular: the persistence of guarantees.

"Guarantees are likely to persist and even increase in importance," Wieser predicts, concluding: "As consumers increasingly access adfree content, advertising inventory may become scarcer than before. This means that advertisers are unlikely to shift toward a “self insurance” model. Consequently, the demand for guarantees is expected to rise. Marketers seeking to optimize spending across multiple channels will still be able to achieve reach goals, but those exclusively focused on traditional TV may face greater challenges, further emphasizing the perceived need for guarantees."