Commentary
Google OS Is The Industry's Latest Non-Issue
- by Steve Baldwin , July 13, 2009
Remember when Linux was going to take over the world? For at least 10 years, Linux geeks have been predicting the imminent overthrow of Microsoft's desktop empire by their infinitely superior, open-source OS. Sure, Linux is great for industrial-strength computing tasks, but nobody other than a Linux geek is going to be interested in buying a Linux-powered notebook, and that's why they all run Windows XP today. Google's OS might find a nice niche for itself on stripped-down computing devices, but I don't see it going much farther than that.
Inertia in the business market. Businesses drive desktop OS adoption rates, so the main reason that Microsoft's Vista has bombed is because of skittishness on the part of corporate IT departments. Windows has been running in corporate environments for almost 20 years now, and there is an immense installed base of Microsoft-trained and certified IT people who aren't about to risk their jobs and training introducing a competing OS. Again, Google may turn out a great OS, but getting it past the corporate IT gatekeepers is quite another matter.
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We produce as well as consume. People don't just consume the Web; they produce it. That's why Photoshop, Dreamweaver, and hundreds of other industrial-strength content-creation tools have huge installed bases. You might be able to create stripped-down, "lite" versions of these programs that can run in a browser, but no serious content creator is going to prefer them over the full-fledged version, which will continue to run on mature OS platforms from Microsoft and Apple.
Google's checkered history in non-search products. I'm not going to bore you with the list of products and services that Google has trumpeted, dabbled in, and quietly dropped over the years, but this list is long enough to give anyone pause. There's also a profound distinction to be drawn between something that can be built and something that needs to be built, and operating systems aren't exactly in short supply these days. I'd hate to think that Google is simply playing tit-for-tat with Microsoft ("OK now, Bing is muscling in our turf, so now we'll muscle in on yours"), but I really can't fathom why the heck the world needs another operating system at this point in time.
O.K. Ballmer, we know this is really you writing under the name of the often perceptive Steve Baldwin. And I'm guessing Baldwin will be suitably angered when he discovers you've 'adapted' his name just as Microsoft so often 'adapts' (e.g. cribs) ideas from others, then implements them without regard to the end use functionality.
Let's consider two points: "an immense installed base of Microsoft-trained and certified IT people who aren't about to risk their jobs and training introducing a competing OS." Ever occur to you, Ballmer, that a more elegant, stable and user friendly OS wouldn't require an army of IT support? Jobs are being slashed across the board, and savvy IT entities and purchasing are and will be looking closely at cost-effective enterprise solutions, not headache inducing Microsoft discombobulations.
And if you have no expectation of innovation or improvement in OS, why are you even bothering to write an analysis? Nothing will change, according to you, and so this should be your last column in that respect. Microsft likes interia, the rest of the information environment detests it.
Oh yeah, why don't you also total up the misbegotten Microsft crap foisted on the market in the last 12 years? Google at least innovates, starting from a clean slate of lucid thinking. That's what the world needs now, and can't afford much less. Certainly not another 'Vista' or 'Bob' or Ballmerian debacle....
I think you are probably right but just to play devil’s advocate, consider:
1) What is the value of the Google OS combined with their software solutions (online word processing, schedules, etc.)?
2) What if Google gives away their OS and their software for free (since they can monetize with ads)?
3) What happens if Google cuts deals with production software (like Photoshop, Dreamweaver, etc.) so that these are free or heavily discounted?
4) What if CEO’s and CFO’s start asking their CTO’s, “Why are we paying for all this expensive (Microsoft) software when our employees can do this for free through Google?”
Bottom line, I think that Goolge has a long way to go to make this work but then they can afford to stay in the game for a long time. SaaS has come on strong and corrporations have already proved that they don't mind taking things out of the hands of IT, reducing or even eliminating the need for inhouse programers. Cost reduction drives most of these decisions and the CEO is in charge, not the CTO.
The question I think it's worth asking of this new OS, is what it provides that isn't already available? If there isn't anything in particular, it's hard to see it overcoming the dead weight of human inertia.
I have XP on my desktop, and Linux on all my web servers. All the designers I know use OSX. All the web developers I know use Linux.
What does this new OS do to tempt any of us away from what we're already using? So far, I haven't seen or heard of anything likely to turn the OS world upside down.
ChromeOS is an important milestone in the history of technology. Just because no one effectively prosecuted Microsoft for a conspiracy or a monopoly, it doesn't mean that it isn't or wasn't happening. It is very real that Windows is horrendous bloatware and that Microsoft coerces hardware manufacturers to pre-load it, and as a result of year and billions spent to hold market position above all, there are no current realistic consumer alternatives. ChromeOS nicely steps in and sets up a legitimate paradigm shift from bloatware to something simple and highly functional. Something that will replace the typewriter, a calculator, do taxes and support SAAS, games, video and multimedia. As Mr. Kotler states, it won't need a lot of support because it's actually a simple proposition. True the approach is something that has been tried and failed, but this time WILL get traction because of simple Moore's law advancements that make devices better suited to support Chrome OS with acceptable performance. Most important is that this computing model is radically better suited for set top boxes and mobile devices ... where Microsoft has shown Windows to totally fail. Maybe Google drops the ball, but DO NOT UNDERSTATE the importance of this effort and parallel effort ... http://tinyurl.com/nf8wdm
Steve - for what it's worth, I think the Chrome OS is just another Google effort to drive more search queries and feed its golden goose.
More here: http://digitalseachange.blogspot.com/2009/07/google-chrome-operating-system-its-all.html
And here: http://digitalseachange.blogspot.com/2009/07/google-chrome-os-not-conspiracy-against.html
More MS bashing that embeaces anything that counters MS.
Steve you made excellent points and I think some Aaron is right, more clicks.
This from a diehard OS X user, and WinMobile user.